Primeira Liga | Gameweek 8
Oct 8, 2023 at 8.30pm UK
CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira
Sporting Lisbon2 - 1Arouca
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 1-2 Atalanta
Thursday, October 5 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Thursday, October 5 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Arouca 0-2 Chaves
Sunday, October 1 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Sunday, October 1 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
We said: Sporting Lisbon 3-0 Arouca
While there is the potential for Sporting to suffer a European hangover, their motivation to remain top should serve them well. Arouca look increasingly devoid of confidence, and it would come as a surprise if Sporting do not win and win well. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 66.77%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 13.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.44%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.53%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (4.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Arouca |
66.77% ( 0.13) | 20.07% ( 0.3) | 13.16% ( -0.43) |
| Both teams to score 46.41% ( -2.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.78% ( -2.22) | 47.22% ( 2.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.55% ( -2.1) | 69.45% ( 2.1) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.77% ( -0.63) | 13.23% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 60.02% ( -1.3) | 39.98% ( 1.3) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.49% ( -2.04) | 46.51% ( 2.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 17.88% ( -1.61) | 82.12% ( 1.61) |
| Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon 66.76%
Arouca 13.16%
Draw 20.07%
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Arouca |
| 2-0 @ 12.58% ( 0.56) 1-0 @ 12.44% ( 0.84)2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 6.5% ( -0.23)4-0 @ 4.29% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.29% ( -0.2)3-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.24)5-0 @ 1.74% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 1.33% ( -0.12)4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.15)Other @ 2.73% Total : 66.76% | 1-1 @ 9.53% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.55)2-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.26)Other @ 0.7% Total : 20.07% | 0-1 @ 4.71% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.16)0-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.1)Other @ 1.14% Total : 13.16% |
How you voted: Sporting Lisbon vs Arouca
Sporting Lisbon
90.5%Draw
4.8%Arouca
4.8%21
Head to Head
Apr 16, 2023 8.30pm
Jan 24, 2023 7.45pm
Oct 29, 2022 8.30pm
Form Guide
