Famalicao have kept things tight at the back so far this season, with Sousa's side yet to concede more than one goal in a game, so we do not expect the game to be a high-scoring affair.
Arouca have not been in the best of form, failing to win in their last five games, but they have a very good recent record against Fama, so we think the spoils will be shared on Friday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 48.91%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 25.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.26%) and 2-1 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (8.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Famalicao in this match.
Basso (66' pen.), Miguel Pereira Da Silva (89') Manuel da Silva Moreira (57'), Miguel Pereira Da Silva (77'), Correa dos Santos (90+2'), Filipe Alves Araujo (90+5')
Rodrigues (23') Jose Gomes Oliveira Tavares (31'), Batubinsika (47'), Miguel Lapa Ricardo (79'), Assuncao (90+3')
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