Primeira Liga | Gameweek 7

Sep 29, 2023 at 8.15pm UK

Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Benfica
1 - 0
Porto

di Maria (68')
Neves (59'), di Maria (69'), Jurasek (90+5'), Otamendi (90+5')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Carmo (34'), Taremi (35'), Conceicao (45+45'), Wendell (77'), Pedro da Silva Figueiredo Freitas (82'), Conceicao (90+5')
Cardoso (19')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Primeira Liga clash between Benfica and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Portimonense 1-3 Benfica
Sunday, September 24 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Porto

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Porto 2-1 Gil Vicente
Saturday, September 23 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We certainly expect a tight encounter at the Estadio da Luz on Friday, with little to split the two teams who both boast plenty of quality all over the pitch. Although the visitors are a point better off at this stage, they are yet to put a statement victory on the board, while their hosts head in with more momentum on the back of five consecutive league wins, and we fancy As Aguias to go top on home turf. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 41.58%. A win for Porto had a probability of 34.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.99%) and 2-0 (6.29%). The likeliest Porto win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
Benfica	Draw	Porto
41.58% ( 0.39)	24.29% ( -0.09)	34.12% ( -0.31)

Both teams to score 59.87% (

0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.26% (

0.34)

42.73% (

-0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.86% (

0.34)

65.13% (

-0.34)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.3% (

0.33)

20.69% (

-0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.71% (

0.51)

53.29% (

-0.51)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.49% (

-0.02)

24.51% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.03% (

-0.02)

58.97% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Benfica 41.58%

Porto 34.12%

Draw 24.29%

Benfica	Draw	Porto
2-1 @ 8.85% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.99% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 6.29% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.65% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 3.31% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 3.27% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.83% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.29% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.81% Total : 41.58%	1-1 @ 11.23% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.22% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.07% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.29%	1-2 @ 7.9% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 7.13% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 5.01% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 3.7% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.92% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.3% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.03% ( 0) Other @ 2.78% Total : 34.12%