Primeira Liga | Gameweek 1

Aug 14, 2023 at 6.45pm UK

Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Moreirense
1 - 2
Porto

Frimpong (51')
Manuel Barroso Valtelhas de Aguiar (0'), Ofori (62'), Pinto (76'), Silva (90+5'), Franco (90+8')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Martinez (67'), Wendell (74')
Mario (22'), Galeno (68'), Martinez (72'), Otavio (90+8'), Wendell (78'), Gonzalez (90+5')
Wendell (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Primeira Liga clash between Moreirense and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Moreirense

All competitions

Last Game: Moreirense 1-1 Farense (3-4 pen.)
Sunday, July 23 at 3.30pm in Taca da Liga

Goals
for

Porto

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Benfica 2-0 Porto
Wednesday, August 9 at 8.45pm in Portuguese Super Cup

Goals
for

After the upheaval of losing their promotion-winning manager and several players during the off-season, Moreirense may have lost some momentum from their exceptional 2022-23 campaign. Despite home advantage, the gulf in class to a well-drilled Porto side should be apparent on Monday evening, so the visitors are set to secure maximum points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 50.67%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 24.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.55%) and 0-2 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a Moreirense win it was 1-0 (7.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
Moreirense	Draw	Porto
24.63% ( 1.22)	24.7% ( 0.28)	50.67% ( -1.5)

Both teams to score 52.37% (

0.45)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.19% (

-0.05)

49.81% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.19% (

-0.05)

71.81% (

0.05)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.19% (

1.05)

34.81% (

-1.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.46% (

1.1)

71.54% (

-1.09)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.34% (

-0.62)

19.66% (

0.62)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.36% (

-1.02)

51.64% (

1.02)

Score Analysis

Moreirense 24.63%

Porto 50.67%

Draw 24.7%

Moreirense	Draw	Porto
1-0 @ 7.22% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 6.2% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 3.81% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 2.18% ( 0.15) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 1.34% ( 0.11) Other @ 2.1% Total : 24.63%	1-1 @ 11.74% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 6.84% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.1) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.7%	0-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 9.55% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 9.05% ( -0.34) 1-3 @ 5.18% ( -0.15) 0-3 @ 4.91% ( -0.28) 2-3 @ 2.73% ( 0) 1-4 @ 2.11% ( -0.1) 0-4 @ 2% ( -0.16) 2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.9% Total : 50.67%