Primeira Liga | Gameweek 31

May 8, 2023 at 9.15pm UK

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
0 - 1
Porto

Sylla (85')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Marcano (44')
Otavio (31'), Marcano (33')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Rio Ave 1-0 Arouca
Friday, April 28 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Porto

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Porto 3-2 Famalicao
Thursday, May 4 at 8.30pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Top scorers

Coming up against an Arouca defence that have proven incredibly difficult to break down is the last thing that the doctor ordered for a tired Porto side, but the hosts have lost some of their defensive nous with skipper Basso absent. While it may ultimately not be enough to see them retain their crown, a rejigged Porto side should still run out comfortable winners on Monday, delaying Benfica's expected coronation that little bit longer. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 66.67%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 12.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.48%) and 1-2 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (5.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Porto in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Porto.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Porto
12.59% ( 0.34)	20.74% ( 0.49)	66.67% ( -0.83)

Both teams to score 42.83% (

-0.45)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.81% (

-1.19)

51.19% (

1.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.97% (

-1.05)

73.03% (

1.05)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.1% (

-0.16)

49.9% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.41% (

-0.11)

84.59% (

0.11)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.49% (

-0.64)

14.5% (

0.63)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.5% (

-1.24)

42.5% (

1.24)

Score Analysis

Arouca 12.59%

Porto 66.66%

Draw 20.74%

Arouca	Draw	Porto
1-0 @ 5.03% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 1.75% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.44% Total : 12.59%	1-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.2) 0-0 @ 7.24% ( 0.34) 2-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.53% Total : 20.74%	0-1 @ 13.97% ( 0.35) 0-2 @ 13.48% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.38% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 8.68% ( -0.18) 1-3 @ 6.04% ( -0.16) 0-4 @ 4.19% ( -0.19) 1-4 @ 2.91% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.06) 0-5 @ 1.62% ( -0.11) 1-5 @ 1.13% ( -0.08) 2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.15% Total : 66.66%