Primeira Liga | Gameweek 25

Mar 18, 2023 at 6pm UK

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
1 - 1
Pacos de Ferreira

Mujica (55')
Antony (43'), Soro (74'), Esgaio (90+3')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Gaitan (75')
de Brito Gonzaga (38'), Antunes (82'), Djalo (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Pacos de Ferreira, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Guimaraes 0-2 Arouca
Saturday, March 11 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Pacos de Ferreira

All competitions

Last Game: Pacos de Ferreira 1-0 Santa Clara
Saturday, March 11 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

We said: Arouca 1-2 Pacos de Ferreira

Arouca have put together a solid run of results in recent weeks as they continue their hunt for a first appearance in Europe since the 2016-17 campaign. However, we predict that Pacos de Ferreira will build on their impressive display against Santa Clara and pick up a slender victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 47.29%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 25.02%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 2-1 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.78%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Pacos de Ferreira
47.29% ( 0.2)	27.68% ( 0.27)	25.02% ( -0.48)

Both teams to score 44.3% (

-1.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.49% (

-1.21)

60.51% (

1.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.37% (

-0.92)

80.62% (

0.92)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.31% (

-0.45)

25.69% (

0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.39% (

-0.61)

60.6% (

0.61)

Pacos de Ferreira Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.62% (

-1.12)

40.38% (

1.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23% (

-1.03)

77% (

1.03)

Score Analysis

Arouca 47.29%

Pacos de Ferreira 25.02%

Draw 27.67%

Arouca	Draw	Pacos de Ferreira
1-0 @ 14.09% ( 0.45) 2-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 8.69% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 4.34% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.94% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 1.79% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.34% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.05% Total : 47.29%	1-1 @ 12.78% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 10.37% ( 0.46) 2-2 @ 3.94% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.58% Total : 27.67%	0-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 5.8% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 4.27% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.11) 0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.09) Other @ 1.32% Total : 25.02%