Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 53.77%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Marseille had a probability of 22.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for a Marseille win it was 0-1 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
Result | ||
Lille | Draw | Marseille |
53.77% ( 0.13) | 23.54% ( 0.04) | 22.69% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 53.83% ( -0.33) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.2% ( -0.33) | 46.8% ( 0.33) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.94% ( -0.31) | 69.06% ( 0.31) |
Lille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.67% ( -0.07) | 17.33% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.3% ( -0.13) | 47.7% ( 0.13) |
Marseille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.12% ( -0.33) | 34.88% ( 0.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.38% ( -0.35) | 71.62% ( 0.35) |
Score Analysis |
Lille | Draw | Marseille |
1-0 @ 10.59% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 9.78% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.29% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 5.72% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.43% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 2.5% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.76% Total : 53.77% | 1-1 @ 11.15% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.15% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.53% | 0-1 @ 6.37% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.05% Total : 22.69% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 36 | 10 | 26 | 32 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 26 |
3 | Marseille | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 23 |
4 | Lille | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 19 |
5 | Lyon | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 19 |
6 | Reims | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 18 |
7 | Nice | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 17 |
8 | Lens | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 17 |
9 | Auxerre | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 16 |
10 | Toulouse | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 15 |
11 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 13 |
12 | Brest | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 13 |
13 | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 13 |
14 | Rennes | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 11 |
15 | NantesNantes | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
16 | Angers | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 10 |
17 | Le HavreLe Havre | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 9 |
18 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 32 | -21 | 7 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |