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[monks data]
Lille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 9
Oct 3, 2021 at 4pm UK
Stade Lille-Metropole
Marseille

Lille
2 - 0
Marseille

David (28', 90+4')
Mandava (11'), Yilmaz (66')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Under (24'), Balerdi (37')
Under (77')

Preview: Lille vs. Marseille - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Reigning champions Lille welcome Marseille to Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Sunday as they look to continue to move up the table.

The visitors, meanwhile, will be aiming to get back on track after an impressive start to their Ligue 1 campaign this year has faltered in recent games.


Match preview

Lille coach Jocelyn Gourvennec gives instructions to his players on September 14, 2021© Reuters

Last season's champions produced a stuttering start to their title defence, with three losses and two draws in their first six games.

This led to questions about manager Jocelyn Gourvennec - who was seen by many fans as an unconvincing appointment before the season even began - but he has perhaps begun to find his feet in the Lille dugout with back-to-back league victories.

A 2-1 victory at home to Reims was followed up by another win with the same scoreline away at Strasbourg, courtesy of a goal in each half by the tenacious Jonathan David.

That has moved Les Dogues up into the top half and, while a defence of their title already looks unachievable with a 13-point margin to leaders Paris Saint-Germain, they can now push on towards the European spots.

There was a bump in the road in terms of their momentum during the week, however, as they lost 2-1 in the Champions League to Red Bull Salzburg, with a Burak Yilmaz goal proving to be simply a consolation, which leaves them bottom of Group G after two games.

Marseille's Ahmadou Bamba Dieng celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on September 11, 2021© Reuters

After a strong start to their campaign, Marseille will be eyeing their upcoming opponent's spot in Europe's premier competition for next season.

A run of four wins from their first five games left Jorge Sampaoli's side looking like potential challengers to PSG, but a draw and a loss in their last two has suddenly seen them 10 points back, albeit with a game hand.

Both Lens and Marseille came into last weekend's game on the back of a disappointing result, but it was Franck Haise's men who edged a five-goal thriller despite Marseille's home advantage.

A ninth-minute penalty and a Przemyslaw Frankowski goal gave the visitors an early two-goal lead, only for Dimitri Payet to add two more to his tally for the season before half time.

It was Lens substitute Wesley Said who provided the winner in the 71st minute, though, which leapfrogged his side past Les Olympiens into second in the table, and Sampaoli will now potentially have to rebuild his side's confidence, which appeared to be lacking during their uninspired performance in a 0-0 stalemate with Galatasaray in the Europa League on Thursday night.

Lille Ligue 1 form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W

Lille form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L

Marseille Ligue 1 form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L

Marseille form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • D



Team News

Napoli striker Arkadiusz Milik pictured in July 2020© Reuters

Jonathan Bamba is fit again for Lille, having played in Wednesday's Champions League match, so will likely start on the left flank, with Jonathan Ikone on the other wing.

Right-back Zeki Celik should come back into the starting XI after not featuring in Salzburg, as part of a back four also including Jose Fonte, Sven Botman and either Reinildo or Gabriel Gudmundsson at left-back.

Renato Sanches remains out with a knee injury, though, as does Orestis Karnezis.

Arkadiusz Milik was fit enough to came off the bench for 30 minutes in Marseille's Europa League game, but it may still be too soon for a place in the starting XI.

Sampaoli played a strong side against Galatasaray on Thursday so there may well be some rotation in the squad for this game.

Lille possible starting lineup:
Grbic; Celik, Fonte, Botman, Reinildo; Ikone, Yazici, Onana, Bamba; David, Weah

Marseille possible starting lineup:
Lopez; Saliba, Gonzalez, Peres; Lirola, Kamara, Gueye, De la Fuente; Under, Guendouzi; Payet


SM words green background

We say: Lille 2-2 Marseille

This has all the hallmarks of being an entertaining fixture and one which could go either way depending on which team produces the kind of performance they are truly capable of. Goals look likely and we fancy a lively 2-2 draw between the two sides.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 41.99%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 29.91% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Marseille win was 0-1 (10.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Lille vs Marseille

Lille
36.2%
Draw
34.8%
Marseille
29.0%
69
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Today's games header
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG108202982126
2Marseille1062223121120
3MonacoMonaco10622157820
4Lille10532169718
5Nice104421991016
6Lyon104331715215
7Lens1035297214
8Reims104241615114
9StrasbourgStrasbourg103431919013
10Auxerre104151718-113
11Brest104151316-313
12Toulouse103341111012
13Rennes103251316-311
14NantesNantes102441214-210
15Angers102441116-510
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne103161024-1410
17Le HavreLe Havre10307820-129
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier10118830-224


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