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Ligue 1
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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 22
Feb 18, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Ble
Marseille

Brest
1 - 0
Marseille

Lees-Melou (88')
Lala (12'), Chardonnet (35'), Le Cardinal (90+6')
Mounie (60')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Balerdi (49')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brest

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Clermont 1-1 Brest
Sunday, February 11 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Marseille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Shakhtar 2-2 Marseille
Thursday, February 15 at 5.45pm in Europa League

We said: Brest 1-1 Marseille

 With Marseille only having to travel as far as Germany rather than Ukraine in midweek, Les Olympiens' Europa League fatigue will be nowhere near as restrictive as it could have been, but their away form in Ligue 1 has been nothing short of shocking. Roy's men may have lost their winning touch in recent weeks and will rue the absence of first-choice stopper Bizot, but Les Pirates have been virtually impenetrable on their own patch this term and should be good enough for a point against Gattuso's charges, who may be lucky to escape with a draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 40.18%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 32.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Marseille win was 0-1 (10.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Brest in this match.

Result
BrestDrawMarseille
40.18% (-0.61199999999999 -0.61) 27.59% (-0.077999999999999 -0.08) 32.23% (0.69 0.69)
Both teams to score 48.5% (0.441 0.44)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.86% (0.457 0.46)57.14% (-0.45500000000001 -0.46)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.99% (0.362 0.36)78% (-0.36199999999999 -0.36)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.16% (-0.123 -0.12)27.84% (0.124 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.56% (-0.159 -0.16)63.44% (0.16 0.16)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.21% (0.72499999999999 0.72)32.79% (-0.724 -0.72)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.64% (0.801 0.8)69.35% (-0.801 -0.8)
Score Analysis
    Brest 40.17%
    Marseille 32.23%
    Draw 27.58%
BrestDrawMarseille
1-0 @ 11.67% (-0.25 -0.25)
2-1 @ 8.32% (-0.038 -0.04)
2-0 @ 7.46% (-0.184 -0.18)
3-1 @ 3.55% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-0 @ 3.18% (-0.089 -0.09)
3-2 @ 1.98% (0.023 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.13% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.02% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 40.17%
1-1 @ 13.01% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 9.13% (-0.16 -0.16)
2-2 @ 4.64% (0.07 0.07)
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 27.58%
0-1 @ 10.17% (0.02 0.02)
1-2 @ 7.26% (0.134 0.13)
0-2 @ 5.67% (0.124 0.12)
1-3 @ 2.7% (0.102 0.1)
0-3 @ 2.11% (0.087 0.09)
2-3 @ 1.72% (0.059 0.06)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 32.23%

How you voted: Brest vs Marseille

Brest
48.6%
Draw
29.7%
Marseille
21.6%
74
Head to Head
Aug 26, 2023 6pm
Gameweek 3
Marseille
2-0
Brest
Mbemba (4'), Sarr (65')

Satriano (73')
> Preview
May 27, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 37
Marseille
1-2
Brest
Mbemba (75')
Veretout (63'), Balerdi (87')
Magnetti (57'), Camara (81')
Chardonnet (67'), Lala (90+2')
> Preview
Aug 14, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 2
Brest
1-1
Marseille
Lees-Melou (61')
Der Zakarian (29'), Belaili (51')
Tavares (38')
Milik (17'), Gerson (57'), Rongier (65'), Guendouzi (74')
> Preview
Mar 13, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 28
Brest
1-4
Marseille
Cardona (90+1')
Satriano (35')
Gerson (3'), Milik (63'), Harit (71'), Under (90+1')
Guendouzi (33'), Saliba (77'), Gueye (89'), Peres (90')
> Preview
Dec 4, 2021 4pm
Gameweek 17
Marseille
1-2
Brest
Gerson (29')
Kamara (61')
Faivre (53' pen.), Honorat (70')
Pierre-Gabriel (90+2'), Cardona (90+3')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG16124044143040
2Marseille1593332181430
3MonacoMonaco1693426161030
4Lille1576225151027
5Lyon157442720725
6Nice156632819924
7Lens156631914524
8Auxerre156362323021
9Toulouse156361717021
10Reims155552018220
11Brest156182427-319
12Rennes155282020017
13StrasbourgStrasbourg154562527-217
14NantesNantes153571724-714
15Angers153481426-1213
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1541101234-2213
17Le HavreLe Havre1540111129-1812
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1523101538-239
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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