Having been on different ends of 1-0 scorelines in gameweek 27, Brest and Marseille prepare for battle in Sunday's Ligue 1 showdown at the Stade Francis Le-Ble.
Les Pirates came away from their clash with Lens with all three points last week, while Jorge Sampaoli's side fell short against Monaco.
Match preview
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Facing a Lens side starting to pick up a head of steam spelled danger for a Brest side who were without a clean sheet in five matches, but their trip to the Stade Bollaert-Delelis was a worthwhile one, as they halted Sang et Or's European charge with a 1-0 win.
While Marco Bizot was a busy man in between the sticks for Brest, Franck Honorat settled the contest in some style with his ninth goal of the season, weaving his way through a sea of yellow shirts before firing past Jean-Louis Leca on the stroke of the hour mark.
Brest's victory in gameweek 27 may not matter too much when the curtain closes on the season, but it has at least allowed Michel Der Zakarian's side to lessen their chances of being dragged into a relegation scrap - currently 12th in the table and 13 clear of the drop zone.
Les Pirates are actually closer to the European places than the bottom two - nine points behind Strasbourg in the Europa Conference League spot - but consolidating their mid-table ranking and pushing for a potential top-half finish can be the only aim for Der Zakarian now.
Not since October have the home side shared the points at home in Ligue 1, but they are nothing if not inconsistent on their own patch and will hope to take advantage of Marseille's European endeavours - albeit a successful one.
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While Marseille's domestic focus remains securing a podium finish and a return to the Champions League, Les Olympiens moved one step closer to continental glory in the Europa Conference League with a 2-1 last-16 first-leg success over Swiss giants Basel.
Arkadiusz Milik struck either side of half time for Jorge Sampaoli's side, although Basel kept the tie alive through Sebastiano Esposito in the 80th minute, but Marseille still managed to respond to recent Ligue 1 setbacks in ideal fashion.
Taking just one point from nine in clashes with Clermont, Troyes and Monaco has allowed Nice to steal a march on Marseille in the race for the runners-up spot, with the third-placed Olympiens now two points behind Christophe Galtier's side and only one clear of Rennes in fourth.
As we saw in the autumn, attempting to juggle Ligue 1 and Conference League commitments has led to a downturn in fortunes for Sampaoli's side - despite their impressive squad depth - but six wins from their last eight top-flight games away from home shows where their strengths often lie.
However, Brest did get the better of Marseille 2-1 at the Orange Velodrome earlier this season, but Les Olympiens had prevailed in each of the five previous meetings beforehand and have not failed to score in this fixture for over a decade.
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Team News
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Brest centre-back Brendan Chardonnet will serve the second of a two-game ban following his sending off against Lorient two gameweeks ago, with Der Zakarian likely to persist with a back three in the absence of his captain.
Sebastien Cibois continues to recover from an Achilles problem but would be unlikely to displace Bizot after his strong showing at Lens, while Ronael Pierre-Gabriel's thigh issue could also keep him sidelined.
Der Zakarian will likely see no reason to fix what is not broken this weekend, with Honorat filling the void left by Romain Faivre as Brest's chief goal threat from the right-hand side.
As far as Marseille are concerned, Sampaoli has been extremely fortunate on the injury front recently and is once again set to have a fully-fit squad at his disposal for Sunday's game.
Sead Kolasinac was somewhat of a surprise starter against Basel but may drop out for Luan Peres here, with Valentin Rongier continuing in his new-found right-back role.
Amine Harit and Konrad de la Fuente are waiting in the wings should Dimitri Payet and his 34-year-old legs need resting, but the Frenchman was taken off early against Basel and should be fine to go again.
Brest possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Herelle, Duverne, Brassier; Honorat, Agoume, Belkebla, Uronen; Del Castillo; Le Douaron, Satriano
Marseille possible starting lineup:
Lopez; Rongier, Saliba, Caleta-Car, Peres; Guendouzi, Kamara, Gerson; Under, Milik, Payet
We say: Brest 1-2 Marseille
Marseille's recent Conference League exertions and sticky patch of league form will play right into Brest's hands, but the hosts have very little to fight for in the final months of the season.
Sampaoli possesses plenty of talented options on the bench ready to make an impact, and with a penchant for victories away from home, Les Olympiens can use their wealth of firepower to edge a tight contest.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 51.34%. A win for Brest had a probability of 24.63% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.66%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Brest win was 1-0 (6.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
