EFL Trophy | Group Stage

Nov 21, 2023 at 7pm UK

Stadium mk

MK Dons
3 - 2
Northampton

Waller (56'), Burns (64'), Devoy (83')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Monthe (36'), Simpson (82' pen.)
Brady (0'), Simpson (28'), Hondermarck (85')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the EFL Trophy Group Stage clash between MK Dons and Northampton Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

MK Dons

All competitions

EFL Trophy

Last Game: Newport 0-0 MK Dons
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Northampton Town

All competitions

EFL Trophy

Last Game: Northampton 2-0 Burton Albion
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 47.18%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 27.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.

Result
MK Dons	Draw	Northampton Town
47.18% ( -0.22)	25.1% ( 0.06)	27.72% ( 0.16)

Both teams to score 53.84% (

-0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.82% (

-0.15)

49.18% (

0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.75% (

-0.14)

71.24% (

0.14)

MK Dons Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.13% (

-0.16)

20.87% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.43% (

-0.25)

53.57% (

0.25)

Northampton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.04% (

0.04)

31.96% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.58% (

0.05)

68.42% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

MK Dons 47.18%

Northampton Town 27.72%

Draw 25.1%

MK Dons	Draw	Northampton Town
1-0 @ 10.45% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.19% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 4.88% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4.28% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.91% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.68% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.59% Total : 47.18%	1-1 @ 11.92% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.67% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.33% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.1%	0-1 @ 7.61% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.8% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.34% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.59% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.03% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.65% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.71% Total : 27.72%