Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 39.62%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 31.54% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.93%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 0-1 (11.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Boavista in this match.