Northern Ireland are on the verge of automatic promotion from their UEFA Nations League C group and will hope to clinch first spot on Monday when they travel to Stade de Luxembourg, where they will face Luxembourg in their final Nations League group game.
The hosts have two points, will finish last in fourth place and could be relegated automatically to League D, while the Green and White Army have 10 points from five matches after beating Belarus 2-0 on Friday, and a draw will in all likelihood be enough to finish first and earn automatic promotion to League B.
Match preview
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Luxembourg's 2024-25 Nations League campaign has been a tale of narrow defeats and disappointing draws, with the latest result a 1-0 loss against Bulgaria on Friday.
The Red Lions will feel they should have at least earned a point considering they had 65% possession and produced 11 shots from inside the box compared to Bulgaria's 35% possession and four efforts from inside the penalty area.
Manager Luc Holtz's side have only conceded three goals in their four most recent matches, but they have also failed to score in any of those games.
Holtz's team have drawn two and lost one of their last three fixtures, though it should be noted they were beaten in the prior four by a cumulative score of 9-0.
The hosts' form at Stade de Luxembourg is mixed, as while they have been defeated in their last two games at home, they did win four and lose one of the previous five.
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As for the visitors, they come into Monday's clash having thoroughly outplayed Belarus, with Michael O'Neill's team creating over 2.5 xG and limiting their opponents to just 0.35 xG.
If the Green and White Army were to draw with Luxembourg on Monday, they would end their campaign on 11 points and could theoretically be caught by Bulgaria, who currently have eight points and one game left, but the group leaders currently have 11 better goal difference.
O'Neill emphasised the need for his players to remain grounded despite their success in the Nations League so far, saying: "The boys are pleased where they are, but they recognise there are areas we need to be better in."
Northern Ireland have won four, drawn one and lost one of their last six games in all competitions and have prevailed in three of their five Nations League matches this term.
The visitors have scored nine goals and conceded on just one instance in their five Nations League group matches, while they have scored seven in their two most recent games in the competition.
Northern Ireland's away form is concerning given they have lost six, drawn two and won just one of their last nine fixtures on the road.
Team News
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Luxembourg are likely to start Tiago Pereira Cardoso in goal, and they could field a backline featuring Laurent Jans, Seid Korac, Dirk Carlson and Mica Pinto.
In midfield, the hosts may select a double pivot consisting of Christopher Martins Pereira and Tomas de Sousa Moreira, while striker Gerson Rodrigues could be flanked by wingers Florian Bohnert and Danel Sinani.
As for Northern Ireland, they are likely to name a similar starting XI to the side that beat Belarus, so expect centre-backs Trai Hume, Daniel Ballard and Ciaron Brown to start in defence.
Alistair McCann and Shea Charles are probable candidates to partner each other in a double pivot either side of wing-backs Conor Bradley and Brodie Spencer.
Elsewhere, Isaac Price is certain to appear in an attacking role behind forwards Paul Smyth and Dion Charles.
Luxembourg possible starting lineup:
Cardoso; Jans, Korac, Carlson, Pinto; Pereira, De Sousa Moreira; Sinani, Olesen, Bohnert; Rodrigues
Northern Ireland possible starting lineup:
P Charles; Hume, Ballard, Brown; Bradley, McCann, S Charles, Spencer; Price; Smyth, D Charles
We say: Luxembourg 0-3 Northern Ireland
The visitors have been rampant goalscorers of late, and there is no reason to suggest that they would succumb to last-placed Luxembourg.
It would not be surprising if Northern Ireland scored multiple times on Monday and earned promotion to League B of the Nations League.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
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