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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 69.49%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 11.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.57%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 0-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
Result | ||
Swindon Town | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
69.49% ( 0.21) | 18.99% ( -0.04) | 11.52% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 44.86% ( -0.37) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.42% ( -0.22) | 46.58% ( 0.22) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.15% ( -0.21) | 68.85% ( 0.21) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.75% ( -0) | 12.25% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.03% ( -0.01) | 37.98% ( 0.02) |
Crewe Alexandra Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
51.13% ( -0.42) | 48.87% ( 0.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.14% ( -0.3) | 83.86% ( 0.31) |
Score Analysis |
Swindon Town | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
2-0 @ 13.19% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 12.57% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 9.45% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 9.24% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 6.61% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 4.85% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 3.47% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 2.04% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.01% Total : 69.48% | 1-1 @ 9% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 3.38% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.62% Total : 18.99% | 0-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.22% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.47% Total : 11.52% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 43 |
2 | Port Vale | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 37 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 36 |
4 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 35 |
5 | Chesterfield | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 36 | 23 | 13 | 34 |
6 | AFC Wimbledon | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 33 |
7 | Notts County | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 21 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 31 |
9 | MK Dons | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 30 |
10 | Gillingham | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 30 |
11 | Salford City | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 30 |
12 | Bradford CityBradford | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 28 |
13 | Bromley | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 27 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 27 |
15 | BarrowBarrow | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 26 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 26 |
17 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 20 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 23 |
18 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 23 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 21 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 21 |
21 | Swindon TownSwindon | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 19 |
22 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 19 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 15 |
24 | Morecambe | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 14 |
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