MX23RW : Sunday, April 6 09:55:18| >> :600:2379219:2379219:
AZ Alkmaar
KNVB Beker | Round of 16
Jan 14, 2025 at 5.45pm UK
AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
Ajax

AZ
2 - 0
Ajax

Goes (36'), Meerdink (89')
Koopmeiners (81')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Traore (77'), Baas (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's KNVB Beker clash between AZ Alkmaar and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: PSV 2-2 AZ
Saturday, January 11 at 8pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Ajax 2-1 RKC Waalwijk
Saturday, January 11 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie

We said: AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Ajax

Given that both teams are in strong form, Tuesday's clash is likely to be a closely fought contest, with neither team keeping a clean sheet. However, considering that AZ are at home and that the visitors do not boast the best record on the road, as well as that they have already beaten Ajax, the hosts should be favourites to advance. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 48.61%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 28.37% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.85%) and 2-0 (7.08%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ AlkmaarDrawAjax
48.61% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01) 23.01% (0.0019999999999989 0) 28.37% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
Both teams to score 61.46% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.63% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)39.37% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.29% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)61.71% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.53% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)16.46% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.83% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)46.16% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.57% (-0.00099999999999056 -0)26.43%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.4%61.6% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Score Analysis
    AZ Alkmaar 48.61%
    Ajax 28.37%
    Draw 23.01%
AZ AlkmaarDrawAjax
2-1 @ 9.42%
1-0 @ 7.85% (0.0010000000000003 0)
2-0 @ 7.08% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-1 @ 5.67% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-0 @ 4.26% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 3.77% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 2.56% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 1.92% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-2 @ 1.7% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
5-1 @ 0.92% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.47%
Total : 48.61%
1-1 @ 10.44%
2-2 @ 6.27%
0-0 @ 4.35% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-3 @ 1.67% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 23.01%
1-2 @ 6.95% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-1 @ 5.79% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-2 @ 3.85% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-3 @ 3.08% (0.0010000000000003 0)
2-3 @ 2.78%
0-3 @ 1.71% (0.0010000000000001 0)
1-4 @ 1.03% (0.0010000000000001 0)
2-4 @ 0.93%
Other @ 2.26%
Total : 28.37%

How you voted: AZ vs Ajax

AZ Alkmaar
Draw
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar
65.3%
Draw
13.9%
Ajax
20.8%
72
Head to Head
Dec 8, 2024 1.30pm
Gameweek 15
AZ
2-1
Ajax
Parrott (65'), Lahdo (76')
Goes (46')
Godts (81')
Weghorst (36'), Sutalo (45+2')
Feb 25, 2024 3.45pm
Gameweek 23
AZ
2-0
Ajax
Van Bommel (7', 67')
Bazoer (55'), Goes (79')
Oct 8, 2023 1.30pm
Gameweek 8
Ajax
1-2
AZ
Van den Boomen (73')
Bergwijn (50'), Vos (65')
Pavlidis (45'), De Wit (57')
Martins Indi (87')
May 6, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 31
Ajax
0-0
AZ
Sep 18, 2022 3.45pm
Gameweek 7
AZ
2-1
Ajax
De Wit (40'), Odgaard (45+5')
Kudus (12')
rhs 2.0
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