MX23RW : Wednesday, December 25 01:34:54| >> :60:120:120:
Defensa y Justicia
Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Jun 30, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Defensa
3 - 1
Millonarios

Fernandez (3', 13', 60')
Gutierrez (35')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Catano (18')
Perlaza (41'), Giraldo (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Defensa y Justicia and Millonarios, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Defensa y Justicia

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Argentinos Jrs 3-1 Defensa
Saturday, June 24 at 1.30am in Argentine Primera Division

Millonarios

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: America Mineiro 2-0 Millonarios
Wednesday, June 7 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana

We said: Defensa y Justicia 1-1 Millonarios

 With confidence from the 3-0 beating they dished out to Defensa y Justicia in the reverse fixture, Millonarios travel knowing that only a win will be enough to guarantee them a round-of-16 place without a playoff, but we do not see them pulling off another victory in Argentina and instead opt for a draw, which would cement the first and second-placed finishes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 52.05%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Millonarios had a probability of 21.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%), while for a Millonarios win it was 0-1 (8.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.

Result
Defensa y JusticiaDrawMillonarios
52.05% (-0.471 -0.47) 26.14% (0.141 0.14) 21.81% (0.33 0.33)
Both teams to score 45.15% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.28% (-0.189 -0.19)57.72% (0.188 0.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.53% (-0.149 -0.15)78.47% (0.14700000000001 0.15)
Defensa y Justicia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.71% (-0.283 -0.28)22.28% (0.281 0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.26% (-0.425 -0.42)55.74% (0.423 0.42)
Millonarios Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.1% (0.23 0.23)41.89% (-0.232 -0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.66% (0.2 0.2)78.34% (-0.20100000000001 -0.2)
Score Analysis
    Defensa y Justicia 52.04%
    Millonarios 21.81%
    Draw 26.13%
Defensa y JusticiaDrawMillonarios
1-0 @ 14.01% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-0 @ 10.52% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-1 @ 9.15% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
3-0 @ 5.27% (-0.096 -0.1)
3-1 @ 4.58% (-0.053999999999999 -0.05)
3-2 @ 1.99% (-0.01 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.98% (-0.053 -0.05)
4-1 @ 1.72% (-0.035 -0.03)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 52.04%
1-1 @ 12.19% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
0-0 @ 9.34% (0.066000000000001 0.07)
2-2 @ 3.98% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 0.63%
Total : 26.13%
0-1 @ 8.12% (0.109 0.11)
1-2 @ 5.3% (0.06 0.06)
0-2 @ 3.53% (0.069 0.07)
1-3 @ 1.54% (0.027 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.16% (0.011 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.03% (0.027 0.03)
Other @ 1.13%
Total : 21.81%

How you voted: Defensa vs Millonarios

Defensa y Justicia
50.0%
Draw
37.5%
Millonarios
12.5%
8
Head to Head
Apr 5, 2023 3am
Group Stage
Millonarios
3-0
Defensa
rhs 2.0
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