Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
May 5, 2023 at 1am UK
Norberto Tomaghello
Defensa4 - 1Penarol
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Defensa y Justicia and Penarol.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Defensa 2-0 Colon
Sunday, April 30 at 7.30pm in Argentine Primera Division
Sunday, April 30 at 7.30pm in Argentine Primera Division
Goals
for
for
20
Last Game: Penarol 2-0 Fenix
Saturday, April 29 at 12am in Uruguayan Primera Division
Saturday, April 29 at 12am in Uruguayan Primera Division
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 46.02%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 28.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (8.21%). The likeliest Penarol win was 0-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Penarol |
46.02% ( -0.41) | 25.72% ( 0.23) | 28.27% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 52.3% ( -0.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
