Copa Sudamericana | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Aug 23, 2023 at 11pm UK
Estadio Nilton Santos
Botafogo1 - 1Defensa
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Sao Paulo 0-0 Botafogo
Saturday, August 19 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Saturday, August 19 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Defensa 1-0 Emelec
Wednesday, August 9 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Wednesday, August 9 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Goals
for
for
36
We said: Botafogo 1-0 Defensa y Justicia
Fogo may be the stingiest defensive unit in South America, and we expect their tight marking will frustrate Defensa's top attacking threats, allowing them to find that opening which they tend to capitalise on at home. The Brazilians could be missing their top goalscorer in Tiquinho Soares for this match, but Lage is a resourceful manager who we believe will find a solution. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 54.2%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 20.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.95%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.89%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (7.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Botafogo | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
54.2% ( -0.07) | 25.44% ( 0.03) | 20.36% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 45.19% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
