Form, Standings, Stats
Friday, April 28 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Sunday, April 30 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
We said: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Wolfsburg
This season, 20 of Borussia Dortmund's 30 league games have produced at least three goals, while Wolfsburg have scored eight goals across their past two matches. With that in mind, we can see Dortmund and Wolfsburg dishing up a high-scoring thriller on Sunday, with the hosts expected to outscore the visitors to keep their title dreams alive. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 60.28%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 19.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.18%) and 1-0 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.55%), while for a Wolfsburg win it was 1-2 (5.16%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Wolfsburg |
60.28% ( 0.02) | 20.7% ( -0.02) | 19.01% |
| Both teams to score 57.74% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.07% ( 0.11) | 38.93% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.75% ( 0.11) | 61.25% ( -0.12) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.45% ( 0.04) | 12.54% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 61.41% ( 0.08) | 38.58% ( -0.09) |
| Wolfsburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.02% ( 0.06) | 33.97% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 29.35% ( 0.07) | 70.65% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Wolfsburg |
| 2-1 @ 9.91% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.18% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 8.85% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 6.86% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.35% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.7% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.56% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3.3% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.37% ( 0)Other @ 3.8% Total : 60.28% | 1-1 @ 9.55% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.35% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.26% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.21% Total : 20.7% | 1-2 @ 5.16% 0-1 @ 4.6% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.48% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.93% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.86% ( 0)Other @ 2.99% Total : 19.01% |
