Athletico Paranaense will advance to the Quarter-Finals of the Copa do Brasil for a second successive campaign if they can avoid defeat versus Bahia on Tuesday at Arena da Baixada.
Last season's runners-up responded quickly to an early setback in the opening leg, coming away with a 2-1 win in the first defeat for Tricolor at the 2022 competition.
Match preview
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A campaign which at times looks destined for big success at Paranaense suffered a minor hiccup on Saturday when they fell 2-1 at Goias, losing for the first time in all competitions since the middle of May.
Whether it was fatigue from such a demanding schedule or an emotional letdown after defeating the mighty Palmeiras at the start of July (2-0), this team were uncharacteristically poor defensively over the weekend, conceding three shots on target and two goals.
It was not their finest moment of the year, although this group, in general, have been a contending team all season who can burn you in transition and are extremely intelligent on the ball, often operating with over 60% possession in most games.
So far, manager Luiz Felipe Scolari has disproven his critics who suggested that the former World Cup-winning coach was outdated and could not adjust to the modern game.
Not only has the 73-year-old acclimated himself well to a new way of playing football, but his team have shown their depth, quality and creativity under his guidance, as 11 different players have scored for them domestically, while eight have at least one assist.
That kind of depth has been invaluable to a side who are in position to capture their share of trophies this season, and it has allowed Scolari to rest his key players for the big games.
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An early goal was what Bahia manager Guto Ferreira was hoping for, though that fourth-minute tally was about as good as it got for his team in the opening leg of this tie.
Even though they had the majority of the possession (60%), Baea were rarely able to enter the central channels, with the bulk of their chances coming from long-range efforts.
Ferreira has often emphasized the importance of team unity, and we have seen that philosophy enable them to be successful in Serie B, scoring the second-most goals in the league (18) as 11 different players have found the back of the net, while four have tallied multiple times.
Although the quality in the second tier is not the same as that in the top-flight, Bahia have been compact and resolute on the back end away from home, conceding a goal or fewer in 10 straight contests, earning points in two of their last three.
A coach's tactics never includes falling behind, but there is reason for optimism among the Bahia players that their current deficit is reversible, as Tricolor came back to earn a 1-1 draw on Friday in league play against Vila Nova.
Another potentially good omen for them would be that they managed a 2-0 win over Paranaense in their last visit to Arena da Baixada when they were in the top flight a year ago.
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Team News
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Christian scored six minutes after Bahia had taken the lead in the opening leg, his first of the competition, with Pedro Rocha picking up the winner, both coming thanks to some nice setups from Khellven.
Pablo has three goals so far, all coming in the previous round, as he leads the team in this tournament, followed by Marlos and Vitor Bueno, who each have two.
Former Manchester City captain Fernandinho has yet to play since officially returning to his boyhood club late last month, David Terans had their only goal in a defeat this past weekend, while Vitinho and Thiago Heleno are out with a thigh and shoulder injury, respectively.
Lucas Mugni gave Bahia a shock early lead in the opening game against Athletico last month, while Gregory tallied the equaliser in their draw over the weekend.
Matheus Davo leads this team in goals and assists with four and three respectively, followed closely by Vitor Jacare, who has three goals, and Rildo with two assists.
Rildo was one of two new faces in the starting 11 this past weekend, as he and Miqueias replaced Emerson Santos and Daniel.
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Bento; Abner, Hernandez, P. Henrique, Khellven; Christian, Terans, Marlos; Babi, Pablo, Rocha
Bahia possible starting lineup:
Fernandes; Borel, Ignacio, Otavio, L. Henrique; Falcao, Rezende, Davo, Mugni; Jacare, Rodallega
We say: Athletico Paranaense 3-0 Bahia
Bahia put forth a valiant effort in the opening leg, but it is hard to envision them coming into enemy territory and reversing their fortunes against a team who excel in virtually every category, with plenty of experience in elimination games.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
