Primeira Liga | Gameweek 15

Dec 30, 2023 at 6pm UK

Campo do Cevadeiro

Casa Pia
1 - 3
Braga

Clayton (74' pen.)
Mukendi (90+6')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Moutinho (51'), Banza (77'), Zalazar (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Casa Pia and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Casa Pia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Chaves 1-3 Casa Pia
Sunday, December 17 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Braga

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Nacional 1-3 Braga
Friday, December 22 at 8.15pm in Taca da Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Braga have to keep churning out results to keep up with the likes of Benfica and Sporting, but this will not be an easy match for them. While Casa Pia have been poor in attack, their defensive performances have been very impressive, and they have only conceded more than one goal in a home game on one occasion this season. Braga will need to work for the points here, but we fancy them to get the job done, albeit by a slender margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 53.91%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 22.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.77%) and 0-2 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-0 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.

Result
Casa Pia	Draw	Braga
22.45% ( 0.41)	23.63% ( 0.27)	53.91% ( -0.68)

Both teams to score 53.24% (

-0.33)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.56% (

-0.7)

47.44% (

0.7)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.35% (

-0.66)

69.65% (

0.65)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.54% (

-0.01)

35.45% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.78% (

-0.01)

72.22% (

Braga Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.49% (

-0.51)

17.51% (

0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.98% (

-0.89)

48.02% (

0.88)

Score Analysis

Casa Pia 22.45%

Braga 53.91%

Draw 23.62%

Casa Pia	Draw	Braga
1-0 @ 6.44% ( 0.18) 2-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 3.34% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 2.01% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.95% Total : 22.45%	1-1 @ 11.21% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 6.21% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 5.07% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.62%	0-1 @ 10.81% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 9.77% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 9.42% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 5.68% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 5.47% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 2.94% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 2.47% ( -0.09) 0-4 @ 2.38% ( -0.09) 2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.67% Total : 53.91%