Primeira Liga | Gameweek 11

Nov 10, 2023 at 8.15pm UK

Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota

Estoril
4 - 0
Casa Pia

Marques (1'), Guitane (24'), Gomes (69'), Cassiano (90+5')
Marques (14'), Holsgrove (64'), Gomes (73')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Neto (32'), Roberto (36'), Cardoso (82'), Mukendi (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Primeira Liga clash between Estoril Praia and Casa Pia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estoril Praia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Porto 0-1 Estoril
Friday, November 3 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Casa Pia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Casa Pia 0-1 Vizela
Sunday, November 5 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

We said: Estoril Praia 1-1 Casa Pia

The hosts will be brimming with confidence heading into this match after claiming a massive three points last week, which saw them move off the foot of the table. However, they now face a Casa Pia side that have earned the majority of their points on the road and possess the best defensive record outside of the top three teams in the league. This looks like a very even contest in the making, and we feel these sides will end up sharing the spoils at the full-time whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 41.04%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 32.17% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.

Result
Estoril Praia	Draw	Casa Pia
41.04% ( 0.01)	26.79% ( 0.01)	32.17% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 50.89% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.91% (

-0.03)

54.09% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.49% (

-0.03)

75.51% (

0.03)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.05% (

-0.01)

25.94% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.05% (

-0.01)

60.95% (

0.01)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.72% (

-0.03)

31.28% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.37% (

-0.03)

67.63% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Estoril Praia 41.04%

Casa Pia 32.17%

Draw 26.78%

Estoril Praia	Draw	Casa Pia
1-0 @ 10.94% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.59% 2-0 @ 7.39% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.86% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.32% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.24% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.3% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.12% ( 0) Other @ 2.27% Total : 41.04%	1-1 @ 12.72% 0-0 @ 8.11% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.99% ( -0) Other @ 0.96% Total : 26.78%	0-1 @ 9.43% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.4% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.48% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.87% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.12% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.93% ( -0) Other @ 2.94% Total : 32.17%