Primeira Liga | Gameweek 5

Sep 17, 2023 at 3.30pm UK

Estadio Cidade de Barcelos

Gil Vicente
5 - 3
Estoril

Tiba (9'), Dominguez (39'), Costa (45+2' pen.), Correia (54'), Depu (56')
Dominguez (57'), Correia (65'), Gbane (69')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Cassiano (51' pen., 84'), Marques (61')
Alvaro (13'), Cassiano (15')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Gil Vicente and Estoril Praia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gil Vicente

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Vizela 1-0 Gil Vicente
Friday, September 1 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Estoril Praia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Estoril 1-2 Boavista
Sunday, September 3 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

We said: Gil Vicente 1-2 Estoril Praia

Both teams have had the international break to regroup after tough starts and will see Sunday as a good opportunity to get back to winning ways. While the sides are relatively evenly-matched, the attacking signs that the visitors have showed so far this season lead us to believe they could get over the line on their travels, with Alejandro Marques aiming to continue his clinical start to life in Portugal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 42.43%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 32.05% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 0-1 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.

Result
Gil Vicente	Draw	Estoril Praia
42.43% ( 0.08)	25.51% ( -0.13)	32.05% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 54.93% (

0.45)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.14% (

0.58)

48.86% (

-0.59)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.04% (

0.53)

70.95% (

-0.53)

Gil Vicente Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.09% (

0.29)

22.91% (

-0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.33% (

0.43)

56.67% (

-0.43)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.26% (

0.32)

28.73% (

-0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.43% (

0.4)

64.57% (

-0.4)

Score Analysis

Gil Vicente 42.43%

Estoril Praia 32.05%

Draw 25.51%

Gil Vicente	Draw	Estoril Praia
1-0 @ 9.7% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 8.91% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.15% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 4.38% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 3.51% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.73% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.61% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.14% Total : 42.43%	1-1 @ 12.09% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 6.58% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 5.56% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.51%	0-1 @ 8.21% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 7.54% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 3.14% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.31% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 2.13% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.63% Total : 32.05%