Estrela Amadora certainly have reason to be positive despite their losing start, having only fallen to Vitoria de Guimaraes after an early red card and only conceded two late goals to Benfica, but Estoril Praia will travel with confidence and should see Friday's game as a great opportunity for back-to-back wins.
We expect the hosts to be resolute again but do not quite see them standing strong throughout to earn a clean sheet, while they are yet to show much threat at the other end of the pitch to bother Pacheco's men.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estrela Amadora win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 31.07% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 0-1 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estrela Amadora would win this match.
0.05) 
-0.02) 
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