Taca da Liga | First Round
Jul 23, 2023 at 8.30pm UK
Estadio Municipal de Portimao
Portimonense3 - 1Estrela Amadora
Coverage of the Taca da Liga First Round clash between Portimonense and Estrela Amadora.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Portimonense 1-4 Celtic
Saturday, July 15 at 11am in Club Friendlies 1
Saturday, July 15 at 11am in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Maritimo 2-1 Estrela Amadora (2-3 pen.)
Sunday, June 11 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Sunday, June 11 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 39.88%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 35.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.9%) and 2-0 (6.04%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-2 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portimonense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portimonense | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
39.88% ( -2.01) | 24.44% ( 0.51) | 35.68% ( 1.51) |
| Both teams to score 59.65% ( -1.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.84% ( -2.13) | 43.16% ( 2.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.44% ( -2.14) | 65.56% ( 2.15) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.32% ( -1.84) | 21.68% ( 1.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.17% ( -2.9) | 54.83% ( 2.91) |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.16% ( -0.16) | 23.84% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.98% ( -0.23) | 58.02% ( 0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
Portimonense 39.88%
Estrela Amadora 35.68%
Draw 24.44%
| Portimonense | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 2-1 @ 8.66% ( -0.19) 1-0 @ 7.9% ( 0.3)2-0 @ 6.04% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 4.41% ( -0.36)3-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.28)3-0 @ 3.08% ( -0.24)4-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.25)4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0.18)4-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.16)Other @ 2.55% Total : 39.88% | 1-1 @ 11.32% ( 0.38) 2-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.17)0-0 @ 5.17% ( 0.47)3-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.44% | 1-2 @ 8.12% ( 0.24) 0-1 @ 7.41% ( 0.65)0-2 @ 5.31% ( 0.44)1-3 @ 3.88% ( 0.1)2-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.2)1-4 @ 1.39% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.08% Total : 35.68% |
Form Guide
