Primeira Liga | Gameweek 12

Dec 2, 2023 at 8.30pm UK

Campo do Cevadeiro

Casa Pia
1 - 0
Portimonense

Justo (55')
Justo (13'), Moreira (14'), Dias (42'), Geraldes (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Pedrao (67'), Jasper (74'), Varela (90+3')
Cassama (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Casa Pia and Portimonense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Casa Pia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Nacional 0-0 Casa Pia (6-5 pen.)
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Portimonense

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Portimonense 1-4 Braga
Saturday, November 25 at 3.30pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

We said: Casa Pia 0-1 Portimonense

Nothing seems to be clicking for Casa Pia at the moment, and their lack of goals this season does not bode well for their chances of avoiding the drop. Portimonense will be licking their lips at this one, knowing that their opponents are in a bad way. We are expecting a low-scoring affair here and feel as though the first goal could end up being the winner. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 45.52%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 28.26% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.33%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Casa Pia in this match.

Result
Casa Pia	Draw	Portimonense
45.52% ( -0.11)	26.21% ( 0.03)	28.26% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 50.77% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.64% (

-0.07)

53.36% (

0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.1% (

-0.06)

74.9% (

0.06)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.62% (

-0.08)

23.38% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.64% (

-0.12)

57.35% (

0.12)

Portimonense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.27% (

0.03)

33.73% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.61% (

0.03)

70.39% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Casa Pia 45.52%

Portimonense 28.26%

Draw 26.21%

Casa Pia	Draw	Portimonense
1-0 @ 11.46% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.05% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.33% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.39% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 4.04% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.59% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.47% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.82% Total : 45.52%	1-1 @ 12.45% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.89% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( -0) Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.21%	0-1 @ 8.57% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.77% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.78% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.35% Total : 28.26%