Atletico Mineiro are set to host reigning champions Palmeiras at the Arena MRV on Tuesday in an early-season Brasileiro clash that could boost each side's Copa Libertadores qualification and title hopes.
After seven games, the home side are ninth in the table with 13 points and are just four from first, while the away team are in seventh place with 14 points after eight matches.
Match preview
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The hosts are unbeaten in the league so far this campaign with four draws and three wins, including a victory last time out against Red Bull Bragantino on Wednesday.
They are also unbeaten in their last eight home Brasileiro fixtures, and have scored 17 goals and conceded just five times in these matches.
Only once in the past 11 seasons have Atletico Mineiro averaged more than their current record of 1.86 points per game this term, and this was in 2021 when they won the title with 84 points and boasted a record of 2.21 points per game.
Galo have conceded five times and scored 12 goals this season, and this makes them the joint-third best defensive team in league as well as the joint-third best attacking team so far.
Their current position of ninth would be enough to qualify for the Copa Sudamericana but given that Atletico still have 31 games left to play, and that just four points separate ninth from first place, the home side will likely have much higher ambitions.
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Former Barcelona centre-back Gabriel Milito was signed as head coach of the club in March 2024 prior to the beginning of the league season, and he has already led his side to a 5-3 aggregate victory over arch-rivals Cruzeiro to secure the 2024 Campeonato Mineiro title.
It should be noted that though Milito's side have a strong defensive record so far, they have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three league fixtures.
Opponents Palmeiras currently occupy a Copa Sudamericana spot, but given they retained the title last season, they will hope to close the three-point gap to first-placed Flamengo as the campaign progresses.
The visitors won their last two league fixtures, both of which were played away from home, but while they are unbeaten in their last six matches on the road, they have only won nine of their last 25 away league games.
Additionally, Verdao have been uncharacteristically poor in the final third, as while they scored the most goals of any team in both of the previous two seasons, they have only scored seven goals in eight games this term, and this makes them the league's joint-seventh worst offensive side.
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Palmeiras are averaging 1.75 points per game so far, and extrapolated over the course of the season this would see them end the campaign on roughly 67 points, slightly fewer than last term's tally of 70 but significantly less than 2022's total of 81.
If Verdao manage to win the league again then they will become just the third team to win three consecutive titles after Santos in the 1960s and Sao Paulo from 2006-2008.
It is difficult to suggest that at this early stage of the season manager Abel Ferreira, who has been in charge since 2020, is having a poor campaign, but given that in his time at Palmeiras he has won the Copa Libertadores twice, the Brazilian Cup, the Recopa Sudamericana and two league titles, fans might expect some improvement as the season progresses.
Team News
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The hosts will have to contend with the absence of midfielder Rodrigo Battaglia after his red card last time out on Wednesday against Red Bull Bragantino.
Defender Mauricio Lemos and goalkeeper Everson are also suspended ahead of Tuesday's clash after accumulating too many yellow cards.
Atletico also have a number of injuries, with Federico Zaracho, Rubens and Otavio out of action, while Hulk, Paulo Monteiro and Mariano are doubts for the game on Tuesday.
Elsewhere, the away side will also be without Eduardo Vargas, Guilherme Arana and Alan Franco due to international commitments.
As for the away side, forward Bruno Rodrigues will be out until July after recent knee surgery, though Dudu was on the bench last time out against Vasco da Gama after last appearing in August 2023.
Palmeiras will also be unable to call upon Real Madrid wonderkid Endrick and midfielder Richard Rios as a result of being called up to the Brazilian and Colombian Copa America squads respectively.
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Mendes; Saravia, Fuchs, Rabello; Allison, Gomes, Conceicao, Vitor, Scarpa; Paulinho, Cadu
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Rocha, Naves, Murilo, Piquerez; Rafael, Moreno; Estevao, Veiga, Lazaro; Rony
We say: Atletico Mineiro 1-2 Palmeiras
Palmeiras have not started the season as well as they would have hoped, but they have won their last two games.
Additionally, the sheer number of absentees for Atletico could see them struggle against the reigning Brasileiro champions.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
