Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 37.46%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 35.67% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.17%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 1-0 (9.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.