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[monks data]
Attendance: 10,008
Luton Town
Championship | Gameweek 35
Feb 25, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
 
Brentford logo

2-1

Baptiste (9' og.), Cranie (45')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Watkins (83')

Preview: Luton Town vs. Brentford - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Championship game between Luton Town and Brentford, including predictions, team news and potential lineups.

Relegation-threatened Luton Town welcome promotion-chasing Brentford to Kenilworth Road on Tuesday night with both sides in search of a win.

The Hatters saw their two game winning run come to an end on Saturday as they were beaten 3-1 by Charlton Athletic, while Thomas Frank's Bees came from behind to secure a draw with Blackburn Rovers.


Match preview

Brentford's Ethan Pinnock celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 15, 2020© Reuters

Luton find themselves at the foot of the Championship table again after Wigan Athletic and Barnsley both picked up vital wins at the weekend and Graeme Jones's side enter Tuesday's fixture six points from safety.

The club have not had an issue with creating chances this season but they have been very poor at the back and they currently have the leakiest defence in the division.

Their defenders have struggled aerially, which could be a problem at set pieces against a Brentford side containing Ethan Pinnock, and against quick, skilful players, of which the West London club have several.

However, the added pressure of trying to avoid relegation has seen Luton's form upturn since the start of the year, with the club winning three of their last six in the league.

Conversely, Brentford are currently fourth in the table and they currently have the best defence in the league, conceding just 29 goals in 34 games.

However, it is their front three of Ollie Watkins, Said Benrahma and Bryan Mbeumo who have drawn the majority of the plaudits this season, with the trio scoring 43 between them.

Worryingly for Luton, Brentford are averaging more than 14 shots a game at the moment and they won the reverse fixture 7-0 back in November.

Watkins netted his 21st of the campaign at the weekend and the 24-year-old is currently getting 64% of his shots on target.

Mbeumo was a doubt for the game with Blackburn but he was able to last the full game and his presence will be vital for Frank's side as they look to end a streak of three consecutive draws and put pressure on the top two.

Luton Town competition form: WLLWWL

Brentford competition form: LWWDDD


Team News

Kazenga LuaLua in action for Luton Town on March 23, 2019© Reuters

Luton Town have a mostly fit squad to choose from but they remain without Brendan Galloway, Eunan O'Kane, Sonny Bradley and Kazenga LuaLua.

Isaiah Brown missed the Charlton game through illness but Jones will be hoping that he's fit enough to play a part on Tuesday.

Emiliano Marcondes has started the last two games for Brentford but the Argentine may drop out for this midweek game, with Frank wanting to keep his squad fit for the run-in.

January signing Shandon Baptiste may be afforded a start in his place, with Mathias Jensen also a candidate to come in.

The most significant absentee for the West London club is Swedish defender Pontus Jansson, who remains out injured.

Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Sluga; Bree, Pearson, Carter-Vickers, Potts; Shinnie, Tunnicliffe, Moncur, Berry; Cornick, Collins

Brentford possible starting lineup:
Raya; Dalsgaard, Jeanvier, Pinnock, Henry; Baptiste, Norsgaard, Dasilva; Mbeumo, Watkins, Benrahma


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Luton Town 1-3 Brentford

Luton's need for a result will likely see them get on the scoresheet but Brentford should have enough pace and quality in the attacking areas as they look to maintain their promotion push.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 49.28%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for had a probability of 23.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.9%) and 1-2 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.52%), while for a win it was 1-0 (8.76%).


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