Panama can book a place in the CONCACAF Nations League semi-finals for a third successive campaign by avoiding defeat against Costa Rica on Monday in leg two of that tie from Estadio Rommel Fernandez.
On Thursday, in the opening leg, the Panamanians triumphed 1-0, handing Los Ticos their first defeat of the competition this season.
Match preview
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Panama's three-match losing run across all competitions ended this week as they won an away game for the first time since the Copa America in July (3-1 over Bolivia).
Thursday was the first time Thomas Christiansen's men collected a clean sheet since a 2-0 victory over Guyana in a June World Cup qualifier.
Los Canaleros boast a 100% record in the quarter-finals of this competition, conceding just once in three previous encounters in the last eight.
The Panamanians have won their last four Nations League affairs on home soil and are undefeated at Estadio Rommel Fernandez in this tournament since losing to Mexico 3-0 in 2019.
That was also the last time they conceded a goal at home in this competition, with La Marea Roja winning their last five Nations League fixtures in Panama by a combined margin of 16-1.
Their last six meetings with the Costa Ricans have gone the way of Los Canaleros, including at this stage of the tournament last year, winning that tie 6-1 on aggregate.
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For a second successive time at this stage of the competition, Costa Rica are in a must-win situation after losing the opening leg.
The last time they made the Nations League semis was in the inaugural edition of this tournament in 2019-20, losing all three of their quarter-final fixtures since they added another knockout round to this competition in 2023-24.
Claudio Vivas lost his first match in charge of the national team on Thursday, ending Los Ticos' five-game unbeaten run across all competitions.
Costa Rica have never won a knockout fixture at this event, losing three successive Nations League contests beyond the group stage in normal time.
In addition to that, they have yet to win an away match in the competition this year, going winless on the road in the Nations League since a dramatic 2-1 come-from-behind triumph at Martinique in March 2023.
La Sele have not beaten Los Canaleros on Panamanian soil since November 2015, when they claimed a 2-1 triumph at Estadio Rommel Fernandez.
Team News
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Christiansen brought in seven new faces to the Panama starting 11 on Thursday who did not begin their friendly against Canada, including Edgardo Farina, Jose Cordoba, Cesar Blackman, Michael Murillo, Cristian Martinez, Adalberto Carrasquilla and Jose Luis Rodriguez.
Martinez and Cesar Yanis can reach the half-century mark for caps with the national team on Monday, while Edilson Carrasquilla, Janpol Morales and JD Gunn will be seeking their first appearances for the senior squad.
Jose Fajardo converted a 66th-minute penalty in the opening leg, his 15th goal all-time for Panama, equalling Roberto Brown for ninth.
In match one this week, the Costa Ricans were missing Alejandro Bran and Haxzel Quiros due to injuries, while Jeyland Mitchell will be suspended for this encounter after being cautioned for a confrontation with Fajardo of Panama.
Two changes were made to their starting 11 on Thursday from their 3-0 group victory over Guatemala in October as Julio Cascante and Jefferson Brenes came into the lineup for Quiros and Bran.
Joel Campbell came on for Alonso Martinez in the second half, collecting his 148th cap with Los Ticos, the second-most in the history of the national team, one more than Bryan Ruiz, while he can surpass Celso Borges and Juan Ulloa for fifth in all-time goals should he find the back of the net in leg two.
Panama possible starting lineup:
Mosquera; Escobar, Farina, Cordoba, Blackman; Murillo, Godoy, A. Carrasquilla; Guerrero, Fajardo, Barcenas
Costa Rica possible starting lineup:
Sequeira; Salinas, Cascante, J. Vargas, Calvo; K. Vargas, Aguilera, Bran, Madrigal; Martinez, Ugalde
We say: Panama 2-0 Costa Rica (Panama advance 3-0 on aggregate)
The Panamanians seem to have a psychological advantage over Costa Rica at the moment, while Los Ticos are not ideally suited to come from behind, all of which we believe will lead to another semi-final appearance for Los Canaleros.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
