Holger Rune's reward for successfully battling cramps in a second five-setter in week one is a potentially thrilling match-up with defending Australian Open champion and world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in Monday's fourth round.
The top seed dispatched American Marcos Giron in Saturday's third round without needing to leave first gear but will require a higher-level performance to beat the battle-hardened Dane in the pair's fifth meeting on the ATP Tour.
Match preview
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Despite reaching the fourth round Down Under for the third year running and for the first time as the defending champion, Sinner's opening week was mixed.
The world No. 1 at times struggled with the heavy-hitting of Nicolas Jarry before breaking the Chilean's spirits by clinching two tiebreaks in his tournament opener, looked out-of-sorts for an hour while searching for answers against home wild card Tristan Schoolkate before outlasting the Aussie in four and claimed a straight-set win over Giron despite an error-strewn performance.
The latter saw him accrue a staggeringly high 37 unforced errors – higher than round one (12) and round two (29) – while conceding seven breakpoint opportunities to the United States player, who took one of his surfeit of opportunities conjured.
Such opportunities may not be passed up by Monday's fourth-round opponent, and there was a feeling from his on-court interview that he preferred facing Miomir Kecmanovic in his fourth match and not Rune.
Despite the average showings so far by his lofty standards, the world No. 1 has improved to 10 consecutive wins at Melbourne Park and 17 straight victories on hard courts at the Majors, and it will be interesting to see if he raises his level for the stern test against the Dane.
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None of the 21-year-old's matches have been under three hours, with the 13th seed on court for three hours and 10 minutes in round one and three hours and 27 minutes each against Matteo Berrettini and Kecmanovic.
The 13th seed was a bad tiebreak away from needing a fifth set against his Italian opponent in round two but held his nerve to take that second-round contest in four sets.
The upshot of Rune's run this year sees the three-time Grand Slam quarter-finalist match his 2023 run in Australia and come within one victory of making his first last-eight match in Australia and fourth overall.
Despite winning two of his four ATP Tour titles on hard courts, including the 2022 Paris Masters by beating Novak Djokovic, Rune has yet to crack the Majors on the surface, evidenced by a 57% win rate at Melbourne Park before this year's tournament and 20% at the US Open.
Although he has improved to 7-3 at the opening Major of the season, the 21-year-old bids for a statement victory over the Italian for a place in another quarter-final at the Italian's expense.
Tournament so far
Jannik Sinner:
First round: vs. Nicolas Jarry 7-6[2] 7-6[5] 6-1
Second round: vs. Tristan Schoolkate 4-6 6-4 6-1 6-3
Third round: vs. Marcos Giron 6-3 6-4 6-2
Holger Rune:
First round: vs. Zhang Zhizhen 4-6 6-3 6-4 3-6 6-4
Second round: vs. Matteo Berrettini 7-3[3] 2-6 6-3 7-6[6]
Third round: vs. Miomir Kecmanovic 6-7[5] 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-4
Head To Head
Monte-Carlo Masters (2024) - Quarter-final: Sinner 6-4 6-7(6) 6-3
ATP Finals (2023) - Round Robin: Sinner 6-2 5-7 6-4
Monte-Carlo Masters (2023) - Semi-final: Rune 1-6 7-5 7-5
Sofia (2022) - Semi-final: Rune 5-7 6-4 5-2 ret
Both men have split their four ATP Tour match-ups, with none of those encounters finishing in straight sets.
Rune has a 16-22 win-loss record against top-10 opponents, including one victory in his last seven against that elite group and two in 10; the 21-year-old is 1-8 in such matches at Majors, with his only success coming against Stefanos Tsitsipas at the French Open in 2022.
We say: Sinner to win in four sets
Although Rune should execute better than Giron, the Dane's marathon schtick should end against Sinner.
Both men have never settled earlier meetings in straight sets, though previous matches were best-of-three encounters, with the last coming in Monte-Carlo last year.
The Italian is backed for a win in four, possibly five, but victory nonetheless to advance to a quarter-final match-up against Alex Michelsen or Alex de Minaur.
