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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 46.9%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 29.75% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.86%) and 2-0 (6.88%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 1-2 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Wrexham in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Wrexham.
Result | ||
Wrexham | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
46.9% ( 0.05) | 23.34% ( 0.01) | 29.75% ( -0.06) |
Both teams to score 61.27% ( -0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.96% ( -0.09) | 40.04% ( 0.09) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.59% ( -0.09) | 62.41% ( 0.1) |
Wrexham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.64% ( -0.01) | 17.36% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.24% ( -0.02) | 47.76% ( 0.03) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.14% ( -0.08) | 25.86% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.17% ( -0.11) | 60.83% ( 0.12) |
Score Analysis |
Wrexham | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.86% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 6.88% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.43% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.02% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.67% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.38% 4-0 @ 1.76% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.61% ( -0) Other @ 3.99% Total : 46.9% | 1-1 @ 10.63% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.3% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.49% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.34% | 1-2 @ 7.19% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.07% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.11% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.24% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.85% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.4% Total : 29.75% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Walsall | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 30 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 29 |
4 | Notts County | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
6 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Chesterfield | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 25 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Gillingham | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 23 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 21 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
21 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 13 |
23 | Morecambe | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
> League Two Full Table |