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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 57.96%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 21.4% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.94%) and 1-0 (7.48%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-2 (5.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.
Result | ||
Wrexham | Draw | Newport County |
57.96% ( -0.25) | 20.63% ( 0.11) | 21.4% ( 0.14) |
Both teams to score 62.12% ( -0.18) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.96% ( -0.33) | 35.04% ( 0.33) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.97% ( -0.37) | 57.03% ( 0.37) |
Wrexham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.02% ( -0.17) | 11.98% ( 0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.61% ( -0.37) | 37.39% ( 0.37) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.57% ( -0.06) | 29.43% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.58% ( -0.08) | 65.42% ( 0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Wrexham | Draw | Newport County |
2-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.94% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 7.48% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 6.87% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 5.61% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.64% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 2.98% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.55% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.26% ( -0.02) 5-2 @ 0.95% ( -0.02) 4-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.64% Total : 57.96% | 1-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.94% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.31% Total : 20.63% | 1-2 @ 5.6% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 4.31% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.08% Total : 21.4% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | BarrowBarrow | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
2 | Gillingham | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
3 | Walsall | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 15 |
4 | Notts County | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
5 | AFC Wimbledon | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
6 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
7 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 13 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 11 |
9 | Port Vale | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
10 | Chesterfield | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
11 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 9 |
12 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
13 | Salford City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
14 | Grimsby Town | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 9 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 9 |
17 | Bromley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
18 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
19 | MK Dons | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
21 | Swindon TownSwindon | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
22 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 |
23 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 |
24 | Morecambe | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 |
> League Two Full Table |