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AFC Wimbledon
FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 6, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
Kingsmeadow
Ipswich logo

AFC Wimbledon
1 - 3
Ipswich

Reeves (17' pen.)
Pell (26')
Pell (59')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Davison (8' og.), Tuanzebe (40'), Taylor (90')
Harness (33'), Edmundson (55'), Tuanzebe (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between AFC Wimbledon and Ipswich Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Stoke 0-0 Ipswich
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship

We said: AFC Wimbledon 1-2 Ipswich Town

This has the potential to be a very tricky match for Ipswich, especially as the Championship outfit are unlikely to have a full-strength side on the field. The Blues are struggling to win games at the moment, but we are backing them to navigate their way past AFC Wimbledon to advance to the fourth round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 40.22%. A win for Ipswich Town had a probability of 34.75% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.65%) and 2-0 (6.41%). The likeliest Ipswich Town win was 1-2 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Ipswich Town would win this match.

Result
AFC WimbledonDrawIpswich Town
40.22% (-0.1 -0.1) 25.02% (0.033000000000001 0.03) 34.75% (0.064999999999998 0.06)
Both teams to score 57.4% (-0.111 -0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.99% (-0.148 -0.15)46% (0.148 0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.69% (-0.141 -0.14)68.31% (0.13900000000001 0.14)
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.25% (-0.11499999999999 -0.11)22.75% (0.114 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.57% (-0.17 -0.17)56.43% (0.17 0.17)
Ipswich Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.31% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)25.69% (0.032 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.4% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)60.6% (0.041999999999994 0.04)
Score Analysis
    AFC Wimbledon 40.23%
    Ipswich Town 34.75%
    Draw 25.02%
AFC WimbledonDrawIpswich Town
2-1 @ 8.71% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-0 @ 8.65% (0.025 0.03)
2-0 @ 6.41% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 4.3% (-0.021 -0.02)
3-0 @ 3.16% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.92% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.59% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.17% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.08% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 40.23%
1-1 @ 11.76% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.92% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.84% (0.036 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.32% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 25.02%
1-2 @ 7.99% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
0-1 @ 7.94% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
0-2 @ 5.4% (0.024 0.02)
1-3 @ 3.62% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.68% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
0-3 @ 2.45% (0.008 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.23% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-4 @ 0.91% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.53%
Total : 34.75%

How you voted: AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich

AFC Wimbledon
20.0%
Draw
16.0%
Ipswich Town
64.0%
25
Head to Head
Jan 25, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 27
AFC Wimbledon
0-2
Ipswich

McCormick (54')
Burns (61', 86')
Edmundson (47'), Vincent-Young (86')
Vincent-Young (90+5')
Aug 28, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 5
Ipswich
2-2
AFC Wimbledon
Pigott (52' pen.), Burns (54')
Hladky (79')
Heneghan (58'), Rudoni (90+5')
Woodyard (16'), Hartigan (45'), Nightingale (52')
Apr 24, 2021 3pm
Apr 13, 2021 6.30pm
Gameweek 21
AFC Wimbledon
3-0
Ipswich
Nightingale (21'), Rudoni (25'), Longman (86')
Rudoni (45+1')

Judge (58')
Harrop (28')
Feb 11, 2020 7.45pm
Gameweek 33
AFC Wimbledon
0-0
Ipswich
Reilly (39')
Downes (69')
rhs 2.0
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5Arsenal105321711618
6Aston Villa105321715218
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8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton104421714316
9Fulham104331413115
10Bournemouth104331312115
11Newcastle UnitedNewcastle104331010015
12Brentford104151920-113
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd10334912-312
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham103251319-611
15Leicester CityLeicester102441418-410
16Everton102351017-79
17Crystal Palace10145813-57
18Ipswich TownIpswich100551021-115
19Southampton10118719-124
20Wolverhampton WanderersWolves100371427-133


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