Friendlies 1

Oct 16, 2023 at 4pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Albufeira

Mozambique
2 - 3
Nigeria

Catamo (6'), Bangal (55')
Dove (38')

FT(HT: 1-3)

Moffi (19'), Onyeka (30'), Simon (45+3' pen.)
Osayi-Samuel (89'), Awaziem (90+4')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's friendly clash between Mozambique and Nigeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mozambique

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Angola 1-1 Mozambique
Friday, October 13 at 3pm in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Cape Verde	0	0	0
2	Ghana	0	0	0
3	Egypt	0	0	0
4	Mozambique	0	0	0

Nigeria

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Saudi Arabia 2-2 Nigeria
Friday, October 13 at 5pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Equatorial Guinea	0	0	0
2	Ivory Coast	0	0	0
3	Nigeria	0	0	0
4	Guinea-Bissau	0	0	0

We said: Mozambique 0-3 Nigeria

Nigeria have a solid record against Mozambique and are firm favourites to come out on top, given the gulf in quality and depth between the two sides. While we expect Mozambique to put up a fight, we fancy the Super Eagles to pick up the desired result once again. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 41.75%. A win for Mozambique had a probability of 29.7% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.2%) and 1-2 (8.19%). The likeliest Mozambique win was 1-0 (10.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nigeria would win this match.

Result
Mozambique	Draw	Nigeria
29.7% ( 0.02)	28.56% ( -0.01)	41.75% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 44.88% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.76% (

0.03)

61.24% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.82% (

0.02)

81.17% (

-0.02)

Mozambique Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.15% (

0.03)

36.85% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.36% (

0.03)

73.64% (

-0.03)

Nigeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.06% (

0.01)

28.94% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.18% (

0.01)

64.82% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Mozambique 29.69%

Nigeria 41.74%

Draw 28.55%

Mozambique	Draw	Nigeria
1-0 @ 10.64% 2-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.31% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.19% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.77% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.36% ( 0) Other @ 1.83% Total : 29.69%	1-1 @ 13.2% 0-0 @ 10.66% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.09% ( 0) Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.55%	0-1 @ 13.22% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.2% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.19% ( 0) 0-3 @ 3.39% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.38% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.69% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.05% 1-4 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 1.58% Total : 41.74%