Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 9, 2023 at 2pm UK

Stade Rene Gaillard

Mozambique
3 - 2
Benin

Witi (27'), Guimaraes (31'), Bauque (90+5')
Catamo (87')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Mounie (20' pen.), Dossou (50')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Group Stage clash between Mozambique and Benin.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mozambique

Last Game: Mauritius 0-1 Mozambique
Wednesday, July 12 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup

Benin

All competitions

Last Game: Benin 1-1 Senegal
Saturday, June 17 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ghana	3	2	5
2	Cameroon	3	2	5
3	Benin	3	0	3
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-4	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mozambique win with a probability of 38.68%. A win for Benin had a probability of 32.91% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mozambique win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.96%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Benin win was 0-1 (11.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mozambique would win this match.

Result
Mozambique	Draw	Benin
38.68% ( 0.22)	28.41% ( -0.09)	32.91% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 46.29% (

0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.02% (

0.3)

59.98% (

-0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.78% (

0.23)

80.22% (

-0.23)

Mozambique Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.92% (

0.28)

30.08% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.78% (

0.33)

66.22% (

-0.33)

Benin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.2% (

0.07)

33.8% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.54% (

0.07)

70.46% (

-0.07)

Score Analysis

Mozambique 38.67%

Benin 32.91%

Draw 28.39%

Mozambique	Draw	Benin
1-0 @ 12.21% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 7.96% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.19% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 2.94% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.73% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.36% Total : 38.67%	1-1 @ 13.24% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 10.16% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 4.32% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.68% Total : 28.39%	0-1 @ 11.03% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 7.19% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.98% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.6% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.39% Total : 32.91%