Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Jun 18, 2023 at 5pm UK

Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex

Sierra Leone
2 - 3
Nigeria

Bundu (41'), Kargbo (84')
Dumbuya (72')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Osimhen (19', 32'), Iheanacho (90+5')
Omeruo (46')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Sierra Leone and Nigeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sierra Leone

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Sao Tome 0-2 Sierra Leone
Sunday, March 26 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ivory Coast	3	3	7
2	Equatorial Guinea	3	1	6
3	Sierra Leone	3	-1	2
4	Algeria	3	-3	1

Nigeria

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 0-1 Nigeria
Monday, March 27 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Nigeria	3	5	9
2	Egypt	3	1	6
3	Sudan	3	-3	1
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-3	1

We said: Sierra Leone 0-2 Nigeria

While Sierra Leone will be looking to pick up successive wins in the qualifiers, we expect them to struggle against the Super Eagles who should have too much quality to handle. Given the gulf in quality and experience between the two nations, we are backing Nigeria to come out on top this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 36.56%. A win for Sierra Leone had a probability of 35.04% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.72%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Sierra Leone win was 1-0 (11.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nigeria would win this match.

Result
Sierra Leone	Draw	Nigeria
35.04% ( -0.65)	28.4% ( -0.32)	36.56% ( 0.97)

Both teams to score 46.59% (

0.91)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.28% (

1.12)

59.72% (

-1.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.97% (

0.85)

80.03% (

-0.85)

Sierra Leone Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.77% (

0.15)

32.23% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.28% (

0.17)

68.72% (

-0.17)

Nigeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.75% (

1.19)

31.25% (

-1.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.4% (

1.37)

67.6% (

-1.36)

Score Analysis

Sierra Leone 35.03%

Nigeria 36.56%

Draw 28.39%

Sierra Leone	Draw	Nigeria
1-0 @ 11.4% ( -0.44) 2-1 @ 7.51% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.46% ( -0.22) 3-1 @ 2.83% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.44% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.75% Total : 35.03%	1-1 @ 13.26% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 10.07% ( -0.43) 2-2 @ 4.37% ( 0.14) Other @ 0.7% Total : 28.39%	0-1 @ 11.71% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 7.72% ( 0.21) 0-2 @ 6.81% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 2.99% ( 0.17) 0-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.14) 2-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.11) Other @ 3% Total : 36.56%