MX23RW : Thursday, November 21 10:35:16| >> :60:577:577:
Portugal national football team
International Friendly
Nov 17, 2022 at 6.45pm UK
Estádio Nacional
Nigeria national football team

Portugal
4 - 0
Nigeria

Fernandes (9', 35' pen.), Ramos (82'), Mario (84')
Horta (90')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Etebo (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's International Friendlies clash between Portugal and Nigeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole looks at how Portugal could line in Wednesday's international friendly with Nigeria.

Form, Standings, Stats

Portugal

All competitions
Last Game: Portugal 0-1 Spain
Tuesday, September 27 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Nigeria

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Costa Rica 2-0 Nigeria
Thursday, November 10 at 2am in International Friendlies

We said: Portugal 3-1 Nigeria

 While Portugal will try to set the pace for the World Cup campaign, Nigeria will be playing for pride as they look to show they can also compete against the very best. However, given the gulf in quality between the two sides, and considering the Super Eagles' recent struggles, we are backing Portugal to come away with a comfortable victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 63.31%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Nigeria had a probability of 15.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.56%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.04%), while for a Nigeria win it was 0-1 (5.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.

Result
PortugalDrawNigeria
63.31% (0.197 0.2) 21.12% (-0.0010000000000012 -0) 15.58% (-0.201 -0.2)
Both teams to score 49.18% (-0.45200000000001 -0.45)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.23% (-0.372 -0.37)46.76% (0.366 0.37)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.97% (-0.349 -0.35)69.02% (0.34399999999999 0.34)
Portugal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.87% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)14.12% (0.054 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.23% (-0.11300000000001 -0.11)41.76% (0.108 0.11)
Nigeria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.27% (-0.489 -0.49)42.73% (0.484 0.48)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.94% (-0.419 -0.42)79.06% (0.414 0.41)
Score Analysis
    Portugal 63.3%
    Nigeria 15.58%
    Draw 21.11%
PortugalDrawNigeria
1-0 @ 11.81% (0.16 0.16)
2-0 @ 11.56% (0.13 0.13)
2-1 @ 9.83% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-0 @ 7.54% (0.069 0.07)
3-1 @ 6.41% (-0.026 -0.03)
4-0 @ 3.69% (0.027 0.03)
4-1 @ 3.14% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.73% (-0.047 -0.05)
5-0 @ 1.45% (0.008 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.33% (-0.026 -0.03)
5-1 @ 1.23% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 2.58%
Total : 63.3%
1-1 @ 10.04%
0-0 @ 6.03% (0.092 0.09)
2-2 @ 4.18% (-0.065 -0.06)
Other @ 0.86%
Total : 21.11%
0-1 @ 5.13% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 4.27% (-0.057 -0.06)
0-2 @ 2.18% (-0.024 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.21% (-0.033 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.19% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 1.6%
Total : 15.58%

How you voted: Portugal vs Nigeria

Portugal
79.7%
Draw
7.8%
Nigeria
12.5%
232
Head to Head
Jun 21, 2013 7pm
Nigeria
2-3
Portugal
Ajagun
Bruma, Aladje
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