Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 11, 2023 at 5pm UK

Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Armenia
0 - 1
Croatia

FT(HT: 0-1)

Kramaric (13')
Gvardiol (21'), Stanisic (29')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Armenia and Croatia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Armenia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Turkey 1-1 Armenia
Friday, September 8 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Turkey	5	2	10
2	Croatia	3	7	7
3	Armenia	4	2	7
4	Wales	4	-3	4
5	Latvia	4	-8	0

Croatia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Croatia 5-0 Latvia
Friday, September 8 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Turkey	5	2	10
2	Croatia	3	7	7
3	Armenia	4	2	7
4	Wales	4	-3	4
5	Latvia	4	-8	0

Armenia have looked very impressive in Euro 2024 qualification, punching above their weight to pick up positive results against Wales and Turkey, so they are likely to put up a real fight on Monday night. However, Croatia should have the quality to eke out a narrow victory, which would move them to the top of Group D. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 63.19%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Armenia had a probability of 15.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.33%) and 1-2 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.99%), while for an Armenia win it was 1-0 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Croatia in this match.

Result
Armenia	Draw	Croatia
15.81% ( 0.27)	21% ( 0.17)	63.19% ( -0.44)

Both teams to score 50.06% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.14% (

-0.23)

45.86% (

0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.83% (

-0.22)

68.17% (

0.22)

Armenia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.12% (

0.21)

41.87% (

-0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.67% (

0.18)

78.32% (

-0.19)

Croatia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.13% (

-0.21)

13.87% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.73% (

-0.41)

41.27% (

0.41)

Score Analysis

Armenia 15.81%

Croatia 63.18%

Draw 21%

Armenia	Draw	Croatia
1-0 @ 5.06% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 4.35% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 2.2% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.7% Total : 15.81%	1-1 @ 9.99% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 4.29% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.91% Total : 21%	0-1 @ 11.47% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 11.33% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 9.87% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 7.46% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 6.5% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 3.69% ( -0.08) 1-4 @ 3.21% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.83% ( -0) 0-5 @ 1.46% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.4% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.27% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.72% Total : 63.18%