UEFA Nations League

Nations League | Semi-Finals

Jun 14, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadion Feijenoord

Netherlands
2 - 4
Croatia

Malen (34'), Lang (90+6')
de Jong (38'), Koopmeiners (93'), Malacia (116')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Kramaric (55' pen.), Pasalic (72'), Petkovic (98'), Modric (116' pen.)
Kovacic (17'), Pasalic (24'), Brozovic (63'), Livakovic (90+1')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Netherlands

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Netherlands 3-0 Gibraltar
Monday, March 27 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	2	5	6
2	Greece	1	3	3
3	Netherlands	2	-1	3
4	Republic of Ireland	1	-1	0
5	Gibraltar	2	-6	0

Croatia

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Turkey 0-2 Croatia
Tuesday, March 28 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia	2	2	4
2	Wales	2	1	4
3	Turkey	2	-1	3
4	Armenia	1	-1	0
5	Latvia	1	-1	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 50.42%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Croatia had a probability of 23.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Croatia win it was 0-1 (8.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.

Result
Netherlands	Draw	Croatia
50.42% ( -0.78)	25.95% ( 0.2)	23.63% ( 0.59)

Both teams to score 47.67% (

0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.52% (

-0.23)

55.49% (

0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.33% (

-0.19)

76.67% (

0.19)

Netherlands Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.94% (

-0.43)

22.06% (

0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.6% (

-0.66)

55.4% (

0.66)

Croatia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.16% (

0.43)

38.84% (

-0.43)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.43% (

0.4)

75.57% (

-0.4)

Score Analysis

Netherlands 50.42%

Croatia 23.63%

Draw 25.95%

Netherlands	Draw	Croatia
1-0 @ 12.95% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 9.79% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 9.26% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 4.93% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 4.66% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.86% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.76% ( -0.06) Other @ 3% Total : 50.42%	1-1 @ 12.24% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 8.57% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 4.38% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.76% Total : 25.95%	0-1 @ 8.1% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 3.83% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.49% Total : 23.63%