UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League A

Sep 22, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Croatia
2 - 1
Denmark

Sosa (49'), Majer (79')
Perisic (36')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Eriksen (77')
Kjaer (57')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Croatia and Denmark, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Croatia

Last Six:

Comp:

Last Game: France 0-1 Croatia
Monday, June 13 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A1 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Denmark	4	3	9
2	Croatia	4	-1	7
3	Austria	4	0	4
4	France	4	-2	2

Denmark

Last Six:

Comp:

Last Game: Denmark 2-0 Austria
Monday, June 13 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A1 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Denmark	4	3	9
2	Croatia	4	-1	7
3	Austria	4	0	4
4	France	4	-2	2

Denmark certainly do not possess an affinity for draws, but rustiness may come into play for both sides after three months with no international action, and June's showdown was an extremely close contest. Both defences should also feel capable of keeping their opposing attackers at bay, especially with Denmark a tad light in that area, so we would not be surprised to see this one end goalless as the battle for top spot goes right down to the wire. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Denmark win with a probability of 46.82%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 29.59% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Denmark win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.17%) and 0-2 (7.04%). The likeliest Croatia win was 2-1 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.

Result
Croatia	Draw	Denmark
29.59% ( -0.12)	23.58% ( -0.19)	46.82% ( 0.31)

Both teams to score 60.32% (

0.59)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.75% (

0.81)

41.25% (

-0.81)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.35% (

0.82)

63.64% (

-0.82)

Croatia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.43% (

0.33)

26.56% (

-0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.22% (

0.43)

61.78% (

-0.44)

Denmark Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.13% (

0.44)

17.86% (

-0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.37% (

0.75)

48.62% (

-0.75)

Score Analysis

Croatia 29.59%

Denmark 46.83%

Draw 23.57%

Croatia	Draw	Denmark
2-1 @ 7.18% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 6.29% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 4.17% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 3.17% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.73% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 1.84% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.91% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.25% Total : 29.59%	1-1 @ 10.83% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 6.19% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 4.74% ( -0.18) 3-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.57%	1-2 @ 9.33% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 8.17% ( -0.18) 0-2 @ 7.04% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 5.36% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 4.04% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 3.55% ( 0.09) 1-4 @ 2.31% ( 0.07) 0-4 @ 1.74% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 1.53% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.75% Total : 46.83%