Though the slow process of introducing up-and-coming players into the Bulgaria squad has started to have some effect, they remain vulnerable defensively and even a second-string Croatia side can pick them off at least once over the course of 90 minutes. While experimentation with systems and personnel may dilute the second half, it could be a competitive duel between the two Balkan counterparts, with future selection at stake for several players taking to the field in Qatar's second city. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 65.13%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 10.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 20.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.24%) and 3-0 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.13%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Croatia in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Croatia.

Result
Croatia	Draw	Bulgaria
65.13%	24.42%	10.45%

Both teams to score 29.06%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

33.13%

66.87%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

14.82%

85.18%

Croatia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.25%

20.75%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.62%

53.38%

Bulgaria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

36.68%

63.32%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

7.74%

92.26%

Score Analysis

Croatia 65.12%

Bulgaria 10.45%

Draw 24.41%

Croatia	Draw	Bulgaria
1-0 @ 20.66% 2-0 @ 16.24% 3-0 @ 8.52% 2-1 @ 7.42% 3-1 @ 3.89% 4-0 @ 3.35% 4-1 @ 1.53% 5-0 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.46% Total : 65.12%	0-0 @ 13.13% 1-1 @ 9.44% 2-2 @ 1.7% Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.41%	0-1 @ 6% 1-2 @ 2.16% 0-2 @ 1.37% Other @ 0.91% Total : 10.45%