Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 40.38%. A win for Russia had a probability of 32.74% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Russia win was 0-1 (9.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Croatia in this match.
