Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 46.28%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 30.66% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.32%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest Croatia win was 1-2 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.