Costa Rica continue to search for their first victory of World Cup 2022 qualifying as they play host to El Salvador on Sunday from Estadio Nacional de Costa Rica in San Jose.
Los Ticos struggled to generate many opportunities in their 0-0 draw at Honduras, while El Salvador picked up their first win in the Octagon, defeating Panama 1-0.
Match preview
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A qualifying campaign that has been somewhat disappointing to this point hit another low for Luis Fernando Suarez and his team in San Pedro.
Los Ticos appeared gassed while not knowing how to get through the Hondurans, as they were only able to generate one shot on target and 32% possession throughout the 90 minutes.
This group of veterans have been incredibly sloppy passing the ball around, with an accuracy of 64% on Thursday, as this experienced side seem to have forgotten even the most basic skills.
It will not be easy to generate a lot of build-up in the middle of the field against the Salvadorians, who follow you everywhere you go and like to swarm the midfield, so the Costa Ricans could have their hands full once again.
The quality has been missing all over the field for Los Ticos, especially in the final third, where they have one goal in their last six games, failing to fire a single shot on target in two of those encounters.
Luckily for them, as poor as they have been in the attack, they face a side who are incredibly passive in their tactics, and one that Costa Rica have defended well against in previous meetings, collecting four clean sheets in their last five matches versus La Selecta.
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El Salvador got what they needed from their last match, three valuable points to move right back into the race for a qualifying spot.
The 4-1-2-1-2 formation used by Hugo Perez was executed brilliantly by his players, who kept a solid Panamanian attacking side quiet throughout the game.
They have put together a series of outstanding technical defensive performances in the Octagon, but they looked anything but comfortable in their only road match last month.
Technically speaking they have only lost one match this year on the road, although it is hard to give this group a lot of praise for easing past teams like the US Virgin Islands and Saint Kitts and Nevis.
They looked overwhelmed and sloppy in their first road fixture versus a formidable opponent this year, losing 3-0 to Canada in September.
Winning away from home would do this team a world of good psychologically, seeing as they have not beaten Los Ticos in Costa Rica since a friendly in 1985, and the majority of their games down the stretch of the campaign will be on the road.
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Team News
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This week, Keylor Navas picked up his second clean sheet in the qualifying round, stopping all five Honduran shots.
On Thursday, Kendall Waston was added to the Costa Rican backline as Bryan Oviedo began on the bench, while Johan Venegas along with Yeltsin Tejeda, replaced Jefferson Brenes and Jimmy Marin.
Bryan Ruiz sat out of that match, which means that he still needs two more caps to move into a tie with Walter Centeno for second all-time among Costa Rican internationals, while Celso Borges made his 142nd appearance for the national team.
Enrico Hernandez scored his first international goal this week as the Dutch-born striker made his fourth appearance for El Salvador and Eduardo Vigil picked up his second cap, replacing Eriq Zavaleta.
Denis Pineda earned his 50th cap in their previous match, while Alex Roldan moved from midfield into a more defensive role at full-back.
Narciso Orellana and Marvin Monterroza, club-level teammates with Alianza, played huge roles in their victory against Panama, as Orellana was spot on with his tackling, and Moterroza created several good scoring chances.
Costa Rica possible starting lineup:
Gonzalez; Tamacas, Vigil, Dominguez, Larin; Orellana; Henriquez, Roldan; Hernandez; Rivas, Monterroza
El Salvador possible starting lineup:
Navas; Fuller, Calvo, Duarte, Blanco; Leal, Tejeda, Borges, Ruiz; Moya, Campbell
We say: Costa Rica 0-0 El Salvador
Neither side are particularly sharp in the attacking zone so expect to see a tactical chess match between these two teams who are not likely to take a lot of risks going forward.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Costa Rica win with a probability of 44.17%. A win for El Salvador had a probability of 31.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Costa Rica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.7%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest El Salvador win was 1-2 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Costa Rica in this match.
