Dortmund5 - 1Freiburg
Form, Standings, Stats
Sunday, January 29 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Saturday, January 28 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Freiburg
Both teams will head into this encounter with plenty of confidence having secured comfortable victories last weekend, and it is certainly a difficult one to predict given that they are level on points before a ball is kicked on Saturday. Dortmund look to have gone up a level since returning after the World Cup, though, and playing on home territory should help them get over the line against a top-four competitor. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 68.1%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 13.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.73%) and 1-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.45%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (3.94%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Freiburg |
68.1% ( 0.02) | 18.16% ( -0) | 13.74% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 54.62% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.78% ( -0.04) | 37.21% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.58% ( -0.04) | 59.42% ( 0.04) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.01% ( -0.01) | 9.99% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 67% ( -0.01) | 32.99% ( 0.01) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.68% ( -0.05) | 39.31% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 23.98% ( -0.05) | 76.01% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Freiburg |
| 2-0 @ 10.41% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.73% 1-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 8% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 7.47% ( -0)4-0 @ 4.61% ( 0)4-1 @ 4.3% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.49% ( -0)5-0 @ 2.12% ( 0)4-2 @ 2.01% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.98% ( -0)5-2 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 4% Total : 68.09% | 1-1 @ 8.45% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.93% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 18.16% | 1-2 @ 3.94% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.67% ( 0)0-2 @ 1.71% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.41% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.23% ( -0)Other @ 1.78% Total : 13.74% |
