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Bundesliga | Gameweek 17
Jan 25, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
Coface Arena
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Mainz
1 - 2
Dortmund

Jae-sung (2')
Jae-sung (34'), Svensson (67'), Fernandes (76')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Ryerson (4'), Reyna (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: Stuttgart 1-1 Mainz
Saturday, January 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 4-3 Augsburg
Sunday, January 22 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Mainz 05 1-2 Borussia Dortmund

 Considering Mainz's home form and Dortmund's recent efforts on the road, a closely-fought contest could be on the cards on Wednesday. However, BVB will be regarded as favourites and they should have enough quality in their side to edge past the 05ers and claim their 10th Bundesliga victory of the campaign. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 54.24%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.08% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.67%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (6.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Borussia Dortmund in this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund
24.08% (-0.134 -0.13) 21.69% (-0.058 -0.06) 54.24% (0.195 0.2)
Both teams to score 61.98% (0.048000000000002 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.16% (0.134 0.13)36.84% (-0.13 -0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.99% (0.147 0.15)59.01% (-0.142 -0.14)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.78% (-0.029999999999987 -0.03)28.22% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.08% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)63.92% (0.044999999999995 0.04)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.34% (0.107 0.11)13.66% (-0.103 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.14% (0.21 0.21)40.86% (-0.206 -0.21)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 24.08%
    Borussia Dortmund 54.24%
    Draw 21.69%
Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 6.14% (-0.028 -0.03)
1-0 @ 4.88% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-0 @ 3.09% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-1 @ 2.59% (-0.014 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.58% (-0.004 -0)
3-0 @ 1.3% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 3.5%
Total : 24.08%
1-1 @ 9.71% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
2-2 @ 6.11% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-0 @ 3.86% (-0.025 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.71% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 21.69%
1-2 @ 9.66% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-1 @ 7.67% (-0.018999999999999 -0.02)
0-2 @ 7.64% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
1-3 @ 6.41% (0.027 0.03)
0-3 @ 5.07% (0.025 0.03)
2-3 @ 4.06% (0.013 0.01)
1-4 @ 3.19% (0.026 0.03)
0-4 @ 2.52% (0.023 0.02)
2-4 @ 2.02% (0.014 0.01)
1-5 @ 1.27% (0.015 0.02)
0-5 @ 1% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 3.72%
Total : 54.24%

How you voted: Mainz vs Dortmund

Mainz 05
12.4%
Draw
18.8%
Borussia Dortmund
68.8%
234
Head to Head
Mar 16, 2022 5.30pm
Mainz
0-1
Dortmund

Bell (43'), Stach (49'), Lucoqui (90+2')
Witsel (87')
Wolf (43'), Dahoud (44'), Pongracic (45+3'), Witsel (90+3')
Oct 16, 2021 2.30pm
Dortmund
3-1
Mainz
Reus (3'), Braut Haaland (54' pen., 90+4')
Schulz (13'), Akanji (35')
Burkardt (87')
Bell (50'), Svensson (54'), Ingvartsen (64'), Tauer (71'), Niakhate (89')
May 16, 2021 5pm
Mainz
1-3
Dortmund
Quaison (90+1' pen.)
Guerreiro (23'), Reus (42'), Brandt (80')
Jan 16, 2021 2.30pm
Dortmund
1-1
Mainz
Meunier (73')
Can (68')
Oztunali (57')
Mwene (40'), Hack (47')
Jun 17, 2020 7.30pm
Dortmund
0-2
Mainz
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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