MX23RW : Wednesday, January 8 13:37:40| >> :300:86500:86500:
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 17
Jan 25, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
Coface Arena
Dortmund logo

Mainz
1 - 2
Dortmund

Jae-sung (2')
Jae-sung (34'), Svensson (67'), Fernandes (76')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Ryerson (4'), Reyna (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Stuttgart 1-1 Mainz
Saturday, January 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Mainz 05 1-2 Borussia Dortmund

Considering Mainz's home form and Dortmund's recent efforts on the road, a closely-fought contest could be on the cards on Wednesday. However, BVB will be regarded as favourites and they should have enough quality in their side to edge past the 05ers and claim their 10th Bundesliga victory of the campaign. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 54.24%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.08% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.67%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (6.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Borussia Dortmund in this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund
24.08% (-0.134 -0.13) 21.69% (-0.058 -0.06) 54.24% (0.195 0.2)
Both teams to score 61.98% (0.048000000000002 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.16% (0.134 0.13)36.84% (-0.13 -0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.99% (0.147 0.15)59.01% (-0.142 -0.14)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.78% (-0.029999999999987 -0.03)28.22% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.08% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)63.92% (0.044999999999995 0.04)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.34% (0.107 0.11)13.66% (-0.103 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.14% (0.21 0.21)40.86% (-0.206 -0.21)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 24.08%
    Borussia Dortmund 54.24%
    Draw 21.69%
Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 6.14% (-0.028 -0.03)
1-0 @ 4.88% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-0 @ 3.09% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-1 @ 2.59% (-0.014 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.58% (-0.004 -0)
3-0 @ 1.3% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 3.5%
Total : 24.08%
1-1 @ 9.71% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
2-2 @ 6.11% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-0 @ 3.86% (-0.025 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.71% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 21.69%
1-2 @ 9.66% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-1 @ 7.67% (-0.018999999999999 -0.02)
0-2 @ 7.64% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
1-3 @ 6.41% (0.027 0.03)
0-3 @ 5.07% (0.025 0.03)
2-3 @ 4.06% (0.013 0.01)
1-4 @ 3.19% (0.026 0.03)
0-4 @ 2.52% (0.023 0.02)
2-4 @ 2.02% (0.014 0.01)
1-5 @ 1.27% (0.015 0.02)
0-5 @ 1% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 3.72%
Total : 54.24%

How you voted: Mainz vs Dortmund

Mainz 05
Draw
Borussia Dortmund
Mainz 05
12.4%
Draw
18.8%
Borussia Dortmund
68.8%
234
Head to Head
Mar 16, 2022 5.30pm
Mainz
0-1
Dortmund

Bell (43'), Stach (49'), Lucoqui (90+2')
Witsel (87')
Wolf (43'), Dahoud (44'), Pongracic (45+3'), Witsel (90+3')
Oct 16, 2021 2.30pm
Dortmund
3-1
Mainz
Reus (3'), Braut Haaland (54' pen., 90+4')
Schulz (13'), Akanji (35')
Burkardt (87')
Bell (50'), Svensson (54'), Ingvartsen (64'), Tauer (71'), Niakhate (89')
May 16, 2021 5pm
Mainz
1-3
Dortmund
Quaison (90+1' pen.)
Guerreiro (23'), Reus (42'), Brandt (80')
Jan 16, 2021 2.30pm
Dortmund
1-1
Mainz
Meunier (73')
Can (68')
Oztunali (57')
Mwene (40'), Hack (47')
Jun 17, 2020 7.30pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern15113147133436
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1595137211632
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1583435231227
4RB Leipzig158342420427
5Mainz 05Mainz157442820825
6Borussia DortmundDortmund157442822625
7Werder Bremen157442625125
8Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach157352520524
9Freiburg157352124-324
10Stuttgart156542925423
11Wolfsburg156363228421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin154561419-517
13Augsburg154471732-1516
14St Pauli154291219-714
15Hoffenheim153572028-814
16Heidenheim1531111833-1510
17Holstein Kiel1522111938-198
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1513111335-226


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