With both teams potentially missing some important players through injury and likely to still be finding their rhythm in their first competitive match for more than two months, we can envisage a share of the spoils in Stuttgart on Saturday.
The hosts should be buoyed by the return of a successful former manager in their dugout, but Svensson's Mainz are generally a tough nut to crack and will not want to return with a defeat.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 49.29%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 26.92% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.21%) and 2-0 (7.9%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
-0.43) 
0.45) 
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