Palmeiras

3 - 1

Fortaleza

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 69.53%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 11.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.06%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.05%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (4.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.