Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 41.08%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 31.61% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (9.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Fortaleza in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Fortaleza.